[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Oct 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms have recently decreased in coverage and
intensity near a well-defined low pressure area located about 60
miles south-southeast of Bermuda. However, earlier satellite wind
data indicated the low was producing winds of 30-35 mph confined
closely to its center. If the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity redevelops near the center, the system is likely to become
a tropical depression tonight or tomorrow morning. After that time,
the system is expected to turn northward and move towards cooler
waters and a region of unfavorable upper-level winds, which should
limit additional development. Regardless of development, periods of
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over Bermuda
through tonight. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress
of this system.

This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation
during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W/35W from
03N to 15N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted where the wave
meets the ITCZ, particulary from 06N-08N between 31W-37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W/56W from
05N to 19N moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is near the northern end of the wave
axis from 16N-20N between 50W-57W. Similar convective activity is
from 06N-11N between 50W-58W. Recent scatterometer data indicate
an area of fresh to strong E to SE winds near the northern end of
the wave.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 75W/76W
extending from eastern Cuba to northern Colombia. It is moving
westward at about 5-10 kt. The wave, combined with an upper-level
trough, is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms
over eastern Cuba, the Windward Passage, parts of Haiti and
Jamaica, and over the northern part of Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues to 08N17W to 07N25W to 08N32W
then it resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N37W to 08N53W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-12N between 20W-31W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N-11N
between 40W-50W.

The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the southwestern Caribbean roughly along 10N/11N to a 1010
mb low pres located near 10.5N77W. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring S of 12N between 75W-80W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the eastern United States extends southwestward
across the Gulf of Mexico to the Bay of Campeche. It continues to
maintain a fairly dry weather pattern. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressure over Texas is supporting
fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf west of
about 94W. Seas are 5-8 ft within these winds based on buoys
observations. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds along with wave
heights of 3-5 ft are over the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S winds will continue through
tonight across the far W Gulf W of 94W, ahead of a cold front.
This front will move off the Texas coast early Tue morning, and
reach from Mobile Bay to the western Bay of Campeche Tue night.
The front will then slow down and weaken, and gradually dissipate
Wed night into Thu. In the wake of the cold front, strong to near
gale force N winds are expected in the far NW Gulf Tue morning,
off Tampico Tue afternoon, and off Veracruz Tue night. Fresh
return flow will develop across NW portions Thu night through Fri,
ahead of the next approaching cold front, which should move off
the Texas coast Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

The southern extension of the western Atlantic sharp upper-level
trough stretches from eastern Cuba southwestward to near Cabo
Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. A very moist and unstable environment
east of this trough, combined with a tropical wave, is sustaining
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean.
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is supporting generally
gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin along with
relatively low wave heights of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the regional
Atlantic and Caribbean will lead to gentle to moderate trade winds
and light to moderate seas through Wed. A deep layered trough is
expected to develop across the central Caribbean Tue through Thu
and drift eastward. A tropical wave along 55W will move westward
and combine with the trough over the eastern Caribbean by Thu.
These features will induce numerous thunderstorms across the
eastern half of the basin Tue through Thu. Fresh to locally strong
trade winds and increasing E swell will move into Tropical
Atlantic waters Tue afternoon and gradually shift into the far
eastern Caribbean Wed night through Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
tropical disturbance located S of Bermuda. An area of low pressure
is expected to form north of Puerto Rico over the southwestern
Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual subtropical development of this
system while it meanders over the southwestern Atlantic through
the early part of the weekend.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the Atlantic
waters between 67W and 74W, associated with an deep layered upper
level trough. The most recent satellite-derived winds data depict
light to gentle winds over this area. Wave heights with these
winds are 3-5 ft.

In the central Atlantic, an upper-level low spinning near 28N57W
is generating scattered moderate convection from 20N-31N between
50W-60W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high pressure located SW of
the Canary Islands near 26N22W. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold
front is reaching the forecast area. The front extends along 31N
between 30W-40W. The front will move farther S across the forecast
region today reaching 27N-28N by this evening. Seas are generally
5-7 ft across most of the waters E of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a deep layered upper-level trough
will drift slowly eastward and reorganize at lower levels along
70W Tue through Thu. Low pres is expected to develop near 29N70W
by Thu night.

$$
GR
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