[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160407
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Oct 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 32W, from 02N to
13N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 03N to 09N, between 28W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 48W, from 03N to
17N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 10N to 15N, between 42W and 48W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 58W, from 02N to
18N, moving west at 10 kt. Isolated weak convection is observed
from 16N to 20N, between 54W and 60W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 86W, south of
20N. Isolated weak convection is observed from 15N to 20N, west
of 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N75W to 07N40W. In addition to the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed
from 08N to 12N, between 36W and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary boundary extends across the NE Gulf
from near Tampa Bay, FL to 27N90W. Otherwise, a moderate
gradient between high pressure over the SE US and lower
pressure over Mexico is dominating the pattern. Recent buoy
observations confirm gentle to moderate easterly wind and
2-4 ft seas across the majority of the basin.

For the forecast, the weakening stationary front will dissipate
tonight. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Mon, preceded by
scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will bring
strong winds to much of the western Gulf Tue into Wed night.
Northerly gales are possible Wed offshore Veracruz, Mexico. The
cold front will move SE of the basin Wed night into Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the tropical waves section for information about the
tropical wave in the Caribbean.

A relatively weak gradient between subtropical high pressure and
lower pressure over South America dominates the pattern. Recent
scatterometer and altimeter satellite data confirm moderate to
locally fresh easterly wind and 4-6 ft seas in the south-central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate easterly wind and 3-5 ft seas are
found across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through Sun
and diminish to light to gentle wind speeds Sun night into Tue.
Locally fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean will continue
tonight into Sun. Moderate winds are forecast for the eastern and
central Caribbean Tue night into Thu as two tropical waves move
across the region. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to reach
the Yucatan Channel Thu along with moderate to fresh northerly
winds and moderate seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N68W to
the NW Bahamas. Behind the front winds are moderate from the NE
with 3-5 ft seas. Otherwise, winds are gentle from the S-E with
2-4 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, an upper level trough is
triggering scattered moderate convection from 27N to 31N,
between 47W to 53W. Easterly winds gradually increase southward
from light to gentle around 25N and to moderate south of 20N.
Seas gradually increase from 4-8 ft with decreasing latitude.
Moderate NE winds and 3-5 ft seas dominate the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front from around
31N68W to Freeport Island in the Bahamas will slide east through
the remaining weekend, and move E of the area Mon night before
dissipating. Another cold front will move offshore the SE U.S.
Tue morning, reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Wed evening
and then stall Thu before weakening further Thu night. Fresh to
strong winds are forecast with the second front from Tue night
through Thu evening.

$$
Flynn
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