[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151657
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Oct 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south of
13N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 04N to 12N and between 23W and 39W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W, south of
17N, moving W at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis.

A second central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W,
south of 18N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is interacting with an
upper level low to the north, resulting in a few showers within
150 nm on both sides of the trough axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 82W, south of
20N, moving W at 10 kt. A few showers are present near the trough
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues west-southwestward to
08N39W. All deep convection along this boundary is associated
with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave described above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central Bay
of Campeche is associated with the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Karl. Mariners in the area can expect fresh to locally strong
winds and seas of 4-8 ft. Farther north, a weak stationary front
extends from Sarasota, Florida to 26N92W. Some shallow showers are
seen south of the frontal boundary, over the SE Gulf. The rest of
the Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions thanks to a
dry continental airmass. Outside of the central Bay of Campeche,
light to locally moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft
dominate the Gulf.

For the forecast, the remnants of Karl will dissipate over the
Bay of Campeche today. A stationary front from Tampa Bay to 27N90W
will dissipate tonight. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Mon,
preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will
bring strong winds to much of the western Gulf Tue through Wed,
when it will exit the basin to the SE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the tropical waves section for information about the
tropical wave in the Caribbean.

A line of showers and a thunderstorm or two are found stretching
from NW Colombia to 14N82W. Farther north, a few showers are found
in the lee of central and eastern Cuba, likely associated with a
surface trough north of the island and divergence aloft. The rest
of the Caribbean is dominated by a weak high pressure regime and
favorable marine conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds are present in the central Caribbean, along with seas of 3-6
ft. Elsewhere, light to moderate trades and seas of 2-4 ft are
prevalent.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through Sun and
diminish to light to gentle wind speeds Sun night through Wed
night. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu
along with fresh northerly winds and moderate seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a low pressure south of New England to
31N72W to the Treasure Coast of Florida near 28N80W. Ahead of the
front, a surface trough extends from 31N67W to the central
Bahamas, supporting scattered showers N of 24N and between 63W and
74W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft are
occurring W of the surface trough. The rest of the western
Atlantic, W of 55W, enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions,
light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-4 ft.

In the north-central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from
31N53W to 26N56W and the interaction of this feature with a well-
defined upper level low near 35N55W sustain scattered showers N of
28N and between 47W and 53W. Similar shower activity is present
near 22N54W due to another upper level low, located near 19N55W.
The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a strong high
pressure positioned near Newfoundland. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds are noted from 10N to 23N and between 27W to 47W. Seas in
these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
2-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
slide east through the weekend, then stall Mon S and E of Bermuda,
before dissipating early next week. Another cold front will move
offshore the SE U.S. Tue, then reach from 31N72W to the Florida
Straits Wed.

$$
DELGADO
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