[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Oct 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl is centered near 18.6N 93.0W at
15/0900 UTC or 70 nm W of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving SW at
4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are 9
ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N to 21N between 92W
and 93.5W. A southwestward to west-southwestward motion is
expected today, and the center of the low should move along the
coast of southern Mexico this morning, and inland by later today.
Additional weakening is forecast, and the low is expected to
dissipate tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 29W, from 02N to 13N, moving west
at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 02N to
13N, between 24W and 34W. This tropical wave has a low probability
of tropical cyclone formation through both 48 hours and 5 days.

A tropical wave extends along 44W from 03N to 17N, moving west at
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to 20N,
between 39W and 44W.

A tropical wave extends along 52W, from 02N to 18N, moving west
at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to
22N, between 49W and 55W.

A tropical wave extends along 78W, from 06N to 20N, moving west
at 5 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 07N37W. All significant convection along this boundary is
associated with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave described
above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl, which is in the Bay of
Campeche.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl near 18.6N 93.0W 1007 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving SW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt.
Outside of the Bay of Campeche, a stationary front extending from
the Tampa Bay area to the nort-central basin near 27N90W is
supporting scattered showers in the SE gulf. Otherwise, winds are
gentle to moderate N of 22N from the east E of 90W and east-
southeast W of 90W. Seas are 3-4 ft N of 22N.

For the forecast, Karl will become a remnant low and move to
18.3N 93.9W this afternoon, and dissipate Sun morning. Elsewhere,
the stationary front will dissipate Sun. A stronger cold front is
expected to enter the northwest Gulf Mon preceded by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. This next front is likely to reach the
far southeastern Gulf late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the tropical waves section for information about the
tropical wave in the Caribbean.

A weak pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate trades and
3-5 ft seas across most of the basin, except in the NW Caribbean
where winds are light to gentle and seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean
through Sun and diminish to light to gentle wind speeds Sun night
into Wed night. A cold front may reach the Yucatan Channel Wed
night along with fresh to locally strong northerly winds and
moderate seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

In the western Atlantic, a stationary boundary extends from
31N75W to 28N80W near Cape Canaveral, FL. Convection is limited
along the boundary at this time. North of the front, winds are
moderate from the north. South and East of the front, winds are
gentle to locally moderate from the S-E. A series of NE-SW
oriented surface troughs are triggering scattered moderate
convection from 24N to 31N, between 65W and 75W. In the central
Atlantic, an upper level trough is supporting isolated
thunderstorms from 20N to 31N, between 40W and 55W. Otherwise,
winds are moderate to fresh from the E with 4-8 ft seas. In the
eastern Atlantic winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with
5-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front across the
offshore waters N of Freeport Island in the Bahamas will
transition back to a cold front Sat morning and reach from
Bermuda to Andros Island Sat evening then stall from SE of Bermuda
to NE of the Turks and Caicos Sun night, before gradually
dissipating early next week. Another cold front will move offshore
the SE U.S. Mon night, then reach from 31N73W to the Florida
Straits Tue night.

$$
Ramos
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