[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 150240
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Karl Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

Karl has not redeveloped any deep convection since the last burst
faded earlier this afternoon.  Data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter flight found surface wind speeds of 20-24 kt and a
peak flight-level wind of only 28 kt.  Therefore, the initial
intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 30 kt, and Karl
is now a tropical depression.  All global models agree the cyclone
will continue to weaken for the next 12-24 hours in the presence of
moderate deep-layer shear and relatively low mid-layer humidities.
The official intensity forecast now shows Karl becoming a
post-tropical remnant low within 12 h.

The depression is drifting southward at about 3 kt.  Model guidance
suggests the shallow vortex will drift southwestward in the flow
around a low-level ridge to the north for the next day or so.  The
NHC forecast shows Karl moving inland between 12-24 h and
dissipating inland by 36 h.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding,
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 19.1N  92.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 18.6N  93.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0000Z 18.2N  93.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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