[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Oct 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 19.5N 92.8W at 14/1800 UTC
or 74 nm NW of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving S at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is observed is S of 21N, between 90W
and 94W. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 30 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant with peak seas of 13 ft. Seas 8 ft or greater are
limited to the Bay of Campeche S of 21N. A southward or
south-southwestward motion is expected tonight and early Saturday
over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl
should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early
Saturday. Little change in strength is expected before the
center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after
the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to
dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the latest
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml,for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 26W from 03N to 14N moving west at
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between
23W and 32W. This tropical wave has a low probability of tropical
cyclone formation through 48 hours and 5 days.

A tropical wave extends along 41W, from 03N to 17N, moving W at
10 kt. Showers are noted near the northern terminus of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave extends along 51W, from 02N to 18N, moving W at
5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to
10N between 54W and 58W and from 15N to 18N between 49W and 52W.
Recent scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong winds near the
northern terminus of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends along 77W, from 06N to 20N, moving W at 5
kts. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave
axis. The 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding from Kingston, Jamaica
showed a mid-level wind shift and and increase in atmospheric
moisture consistent with a weak tropical wave passage.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Senegal and Guinea-
Bissau near 12N17W to 05N27W to 05N35W. Outside of the convection
described in the tropical waves section, scattered showers are in
the vicinity of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
about Tropical Storm Karl, which is in the Bay of Campeche.

Outside of the Bay of Campeche, fair conditions prevail across the
Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends across the N Gulf from Port
O'Connor, Texas, to Clearwater/Tampa Bay, FL. No significant convection
is noted with the cold front at this time, though a few showers
are evident near the boundary on visible satellite. Moderate E
winds are south of the front, with moderate NE winds north of the
front. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, Karl will move to 18.8N 92.7W this evening,
move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 18.1N 93.3W
Sat morning, and dissipate Sat evening. Elsewhere, a weak cold
front from just north of Tampa Bay to the middle Texas coast will
stall from South Florida to Bay of Campeche Sat through Sun before
dissipating Mon. A stronger cold front is expected to enter the
northwest Gulf Mon night preceded by scattered showers and
thunderstorms. This next front may reach the far southeastern Gulf
late on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the tropical waves section for information about the
tropical wave in the Caribbean.

A weak pressure gradient supports gentle to locally moderate
trades and 3-5 ft seas across most of the basin, except in the NW
Caribbean where winds are light and variable and seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through Sun
and diminish to light to gentle wind speeds Sun night into Tue
night. A weak cold front will likely stall near the Yucatan
Channel Sat night and dissipate Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

In the NW discussion waters, a cold front enters the area near
31N76W and extends to Titusville, FL. No convection is noted with
the cold front at this time. Southeast and ahead of the front, a
trough enters the discussion waters near 31N74W and continues
southwest to Lake Okeechobee. Scattered moderate convection ahead
of the trough is north of 28N between 70W and 74W. A weak trough
in the central Atlantic extends from 31N56W to 25N59W. No
convection is noted with the trough at this time. Also in the
central Atlantic, an area of scattered moderate convection
enhanced by an upper-level low is from 22N to 31N between 50W and
54W. NE to E winds are moderate to fresh in the eastern and
central Atlantic with seas of 4-7 ft. E to SE winds are gentle in
the W Atlantic, with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
continue SE and reach a Bermuda to South Florida line Sat night,
stall along 25N Sun night, then dissipate by Mon night. Another
cold front will move offshore the SE U.S. Mon night, then reach
from 31N73W to South Florida Tue night.

$$
Mahoney
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