[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT34 KNHC 131745
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
100 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 93.7W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 93.7 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on
Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of
Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late
Friday night or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so
before Karl reaches the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico from Friday into
Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along
with mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or
Friday night.

SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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