[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 130532
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
100 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 94.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.  Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 94.3 West.  Karl is
nearly stationary currently.  A slow motion toward the southeast
should begin later today, with Karl then expected to turn southward
over the Bay of Campeche on Friday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states
in Mexico Friday night or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Karl should
gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay
of Campeche coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into late Saturday.  Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is
also expected across portions of Chiapas. These rains can produce
flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting late Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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