[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 120837
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Karl has not changed much in organization over the past several
hours.  The central convection is currently minimal, with the
primary convection occurring in bands somewhat removed from the
center in the eastern semicircle.  NOAA buoy 42055 located to the
northeast of the center has reported 1-min average winds of up to
33 kt, and based on this plus a satellite intensity estimate from
TAFB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The initial motion is 340/5 kt.  A general north-northwestward
motion is expected to continue through today.  After that, a ridge
of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Karl over
northern Mexico.  The flow around the southeastern flank of this
anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to make a left hairpin turn
and move southward to south-southwestward by 36-48 h.  The latest
track guidance has shifted eastward from the previous runs, with
several models now showing a right hairpin turn and a east of south
motion toward the coast of Mexico.  The new forecast track is
shifted eastward from the previous forecast, but lies to the west of
the current consensus models.  If the models do not shift back
westward, additional eastward adjustments may be necessary later
today.

Karl is currently located within an environment of light to moderate
southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures.  This
should allow some strengthening through the next 24 h.  After that
time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level
relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before
landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to
the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate just after
72 h.  The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from
the previous forecast and is on the high side of the intensity
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Vera Cruz
and Tabasco states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting on Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 21.1N  94.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 21.7N  95.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 21.7N  95.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 20.9N  95.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 20.2N  95.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  14/1800Z 19.5N  95.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 18.6N  96.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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