[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100905
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south
of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is observed.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W, south of
18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 47W and 51W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W to 10N20W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to
07N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed on satellite imagery from 07N to 09N and between 33W and
38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Sarasota, Florida to 24N92W.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong
winds across the central Gulf, between high pressure north of the
area over the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys and lower
pressure farther south over western Caribbean and eastern Pacific.
A concurrent altimeter satellite pass and regional buoy data showed
seas of 6 to 8 ft across the central Gulf. The scatterometer also
shows fresh to strong NW winds over the far southwest Gulf, along
the coast of the Mexican state of Veracruz, west of a trough
extending from Tampico to Coatzacoalcos. A concurrent altimeter
showed seas to 9 ft off the port of Veracruz. Moderate NE winds
and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will lift northward as a weak warm
front over the eastern and central Gulf into Tue while gradually
dissipating. Expect mainly moderate to fresh NE winds across much
of the basin through early Tue. Fresh to strong NW winds and
moderate to rough seas will persist over the far southwest Gulf
off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through Tue. Looking ahead,
another front will move into the northwest Gulf early Thu, and
extending across the central Gulf Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Julia is over the eastern Pacific, centered along
the central coast of El Salvador. This pattern is assisting a
large a of showers and thunderstorms are active over the far
northwest Caribbean north of Honduras and east of Belize.
Scatterometer satellite data and ship observations in this area,
indicate fresh to strong E winds. Wave heights are likely
approaching 8 ft in this area as well. Elsewhere, moderate winds
and seas are observed, except for fresh winds in the Windward
passage, off Cabo Beata of Hispaniola, and between central Panama
and San Andres Island in the southwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough
seas will persist across the far northwest Caribbean through late
today. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds pulsing near the
coast over the south-central Caribbean will diminish by mid week
as a weak tropical wave enters the region. Elsewhere, moderate
winds and seas will diminish across the basin by late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N74W to near Palm Bay, Florida.
A trough is analyzed ahead of the front, from Bermuda to the
northern Bahamas. Favorable upper level winds are supporting
clusters of showers and thunderstorms along the trough. Gentle to
moderate E winds and moderate seas are evident west of 55W, except
for winds to 20 kt across the southern Bahamas and near the
northern approaches to the Windward Passage. Farther east, an
upper low is centered near 24N52W. An associated surface trough
extends from 31N50W to 25N57W. Scattered showers are evident
within 240 nm east of the surface trough. To the east of the
trough, a 1028 mb high pressure is centered near 35N36W. Moderate
to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of this
ridge, between 35W and 55W. East of 35W, moderate NE winds and
moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will be reinforced
today and move slight southward today, before stalling again from
near Bermuda to east-central Florida by late Tue, then dissipate
at it lifts northward through mid week. Looking ahead, a cold
front will move off the coast of northeast Florida late Thu, and
reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Fri night to early Sat
morning.

$$

Christensen
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