[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Oct 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Julia is centered near 12.5N 87.6W at 10/0000 UTC
moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Julia has emerged into the Eastern Pacific. This is the second
time this year that a tropical cyclone has maintained its status
while crossing the Atlantic basin into the eastern Pacific
region. The other was Bonnie in July this season. Bands of rain
associated with the large circulation of Julia are affecting
Central America, and the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong SE
winds are noted per scatterometer. Heavy rainfall will continue
to impact Central America and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in
Mexico. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides across Central America and SE Mexico through early
this week. Swells generated by Julia continue to affect
Providencia and San Andres Islands and the Caribbean coast of
Central America, but should gradually subside through Monday
night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Julia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is crossing the Cabo Verde Islands. It axis is
along 23W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots. A few
showers are near the wave axis.

A second tropical wave is along 46W/47W, from 17N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is near
the wave axis from 09N to 11N between 44W and 48W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 07N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to
07N45W, then resumes at 07N48W to the coast of Guyana near
08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between
30W and 38W, and within about 110 nm N of the ITCZ between 50W
and 55W.twdat

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from across the northern Gulf waters from
near Tampa Bay, Florida to Brownsville, Texas. Scatterometer data
indicate moderate to fresh NE winds on either side on the front
with seas of 4-7 ft based on altimeter data. A stationary front
is analyzed over SE Florida and the Florida keys into the Straits
of Florida to near 23N85W. Some shower activity is associated
with the front. Fresh to locally strong NW winds persist across
the Veracruz area. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere
across the basin.

For the forecast, the western half of the cold front will weaken
and dissipate tonight as the eastern portion stalls across the
southeast Gulf on Mon after merging with a leading stationary
front that is transitioning to a warm front this evening. The
front will then lift north Tue while dissipating. Expect mainly
moderate to fresh NE winds across much of the basin through late
Tue as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure
across the Gulf region and lower pressure across the Pacific
offshores waters. Otherwise, fresh to strong NW winds and
moderate to rough seas will persist over the far southwest Gulf
off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
Tropical Storm Julia.

The pressure gradient associated with the broad ridge over the
central United States and tropical cyclone Julia supports moderate
to locally strong NE-E winds in the western Caribbean Sea, including
the Gulf of Honduras with seas of 6-8 ft. Another area of fresh
to locally strong SE winds is noted over the SW Caribbean, off
the coast of Nicaragua based on satellite derived wind data. Seas
are 5-7 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted in the rest of the central and
eastern Caribbean.

Abundant showers with embedded tstms are affecting the eastern
Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, the UK/US Virgin Islands and
the Lesser Antilles. This convective activity is related to an
upper-level low spinning over the NE Caribbean. Upper diffluent
on the SE side of the low is also helping to induce convection in
the area, including parts of Venezuela, and Guyana.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julia will move to 12.8N 88.7W
Mon morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 13.6N 90.7W Mon
afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. Fresh to locally strong
winds across the Central America offshore waters from Nicaragua
to western Panama will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds
tonight, however fresh to strong easterly winds are forecast to
prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon night. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and E Caribbean will
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front remains across the SW N Atlantic and extends
from SE of Bermuda near 31N63W to SE Florida. Scattered showers
and tstms activity is associated with the front. A cold follows
this front and runs from 31N75W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida.
The cold front continues across northern Florida into the Gulf of
Mexico. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the wake of the cold
front. Farther east, an upper-level low is centered near 27N51W,
with an associated surface trough extending 31N48W to 21N56W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active from 21N
to 28N between 44W and 52W. The remainder of the Atlantic
forecast waters are under the influence of 1027 mb high pressure
located W of the Azores near 35N36W. Moderate to fresh trades are
noted along the southern periphery of the ridge between 25W and
45W. Seas are 6-8 ft within these winds.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned fronts are expected
to merge. The merging front will lift N through Mon morning and
then meander across the offshore waters N of Freeport through Tue
before lifting N of the area on Wed. High pressure building N of
the area will support moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 25N
through early Thu and NE to E winds of similar speeds N of the
frontal boundary through Wed. Seas will be slight to moderate
during the forecast period.

$$
GR/SDR
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