[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 090234
TCDAT3

Hurricane Julia Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Julia became a hurricane near 08/23Z.  NOAA measured
700-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt and estimated surface winds of
67 kt on the SFMR, while the Air Force measured 850-mb flight-level
winds of 75 kt.  The central pressure fell to near 988 mb while the
planes were in the cyclone.  Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set at 65 kt.

The initial motion is still westward or 270/14 kt.  Strong
deep-layer ridging to the north of the hurricane should steer Julia
generally westward during the next couple of days with a gradual
decrease in forward speed.  This motion should bring the center
across the coast of Nicaragua during the next several hours, then
across Nicaragua on Sunday before emerging into the Pacific late
Sunday or Sunday night.  After that, Julia, or its remnants, are
expected to continue moving generally westward until the system
dissipates.  The new official forecast track is very similar to the
previous track and lies close to the various consensus models.

Julia has only a few more hours before landfall in Nicaragua.
However, infrared and microwave satellite imagery shows that the
convective structure has become much better organized, and the
hurricane would likely undergo rapid intensification if it wasn't
about to make landfall.  While not explicitly shown in the
intensity forecast, maximum sustained winds could reach 70-75 kt
before landfall.  A quick weakening is expected after landfall, but
Julia is forecast to be at or near tropical storm strength when it
emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua.  The intensity forecast
still calls for Julia to weaken over the Pacific and dissipate
after 48 h as it becomes absorbed by a broader area of low pressure
associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, a scenario
supported by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models.  However, the
UKMET maintains some uncertainty about this, as it shows Julia
surviving and movingly slowly westward into the Pacific during the
next several days.

Regardless of Julia's track and existence as a tropical cyclone,
the evolving weather pattern is likely to lead to heavy rains
over Central America for several days, which could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas
of mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is expected to reach the coast of Nicaragua as a hurricane
within the next several hours.  Hurricane-force winds and a
dangerous storm surge will continue in portions of Providencia and
San Andres islands during the next few hours, and are expected near
the core of the hurricane when it moves onshore in Nicaragua.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend.  Flash flooding is
possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next
week.

3. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves
across Central America to the adjacent Pacific waters, and tropical
storm warnings are in effect along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua,
Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the possibility of
tropical-storm-force winds in those areas late Sunday and Sunday
night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 12.5N  82.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 12.5N  84.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 24H  10/0000Z 12.6N  87.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  10/1200Z 13.0N  90.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 13.4N  92.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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