[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT33 KNHC 080551
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JULIA IS STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 77.2W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of Julia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 77.2 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). This general motion
should continue through tonight, with a westward motion at a slower
forward speed expected on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Julia is expected to pass near or over San
Andres and Providencia Islands this evening and then reach the coast
of Nicaragua on Sunday morning. Julia or its remnants will then turn
west-northwestward over Central America by Monday.

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady to possibly rapid strengthening is forecast
while Julia moves across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the
next day or so, and the system is expected to become a hurricane by
the time it passes near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands
and reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated
after Julia moves inland on Sunday, and it is likely to become a
remnant low or dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane warning area by Sunday morning, with tropical storm
conditions beginning by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible
along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch areas Sunday
morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Honduras
within the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:

San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador...
4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7
inches, isolated 12 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF:  Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica and are
expected to reach Providencia and San Andres Islands today, and
portions of the coast of Central America later today into Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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