[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT33 KNHC 071454
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORMS OFF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NICARAGUA AND THE
OFFSHORE COLOMBIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 73.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina
Islands.

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Watch from
Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Honduras border.

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
the Nicaragua/Honduras border westward to Punta Patuca.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua from Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Honduras border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia from Riohacha to the Colombia/Venezuela border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next few hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of Julia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 73.1 West.  Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  A westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to move across
the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days,
passing near San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening,
and reaching the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning.  After
landfall, Julia or its remnants are expected to turn
west-northwestward and move across Central America through Monday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65
km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Julia is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday evening before
it reaches San Andres and Providencia Islands, and the coast of
Nicaragua.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches) based on
data from the reconnaissance aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening,
with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday afternoon.
Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of Nicaragua
within the watch area Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Saturday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia
within the warning area for a few more hours. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras Sunday
morning.

RAINFALL:  Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:

Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Portions of Central America...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF:  Swells affecting the ABC Islands and portions of the coasts
of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia
should subside today. Swells are forecast to spread westward and
reach Jamaica tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on
Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on Saturday
night and Sunday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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