[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 060846
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
500 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

Once again, the low-level circulation of the depression has
separated from the deep convection, which is located over 50 miles
to the east-northeast of the center.  Subjective satellite intensity
estimates have held steady and the initial intensity remains at 30
kt.  The already strong west-southwesterly vertical wind shear is
forecast to increase further in the next day or so and will likely
cause the cyclone to weaken quickly.  Most of the global models
suggest the system will open into a trough within a day or two.  The
official forecast now shows the depression becoming a post-tropical
remnant low in 12 hours and dissipated by 36 hours.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt.  This
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so while
the system follows the low-level flow around a ridge to the north.
The NHC track forecast has shifted south from the previous forecast
possibly due to the more westward initial position and is on the
northern edge of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 18.0N  33.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 18.8N  34.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/0600Z 19.3N  37.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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