[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Oct 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Twelve...
Tropical Depression Twelve near 16.3N 32.4W 1007 mb at 5 PM EDT
moving WNW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
Combined seas are in the 8-11 ft range near and north of the
center. Satellite imagery shows that the depression is losing
organization and now has an exposed low-level center displaced
from the associated deep convection due to strong WSW shear.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm in
the northeast quadrant. The current forecast indicates that the
depression will become a remnant low in the next 24 hours, then
dissipate Fri afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/ll.html and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Wave/Broad Low Pressure...
A tropical wave crossed the Windward Islands this morning and is
now in the far southeastern Caribbean along 63W from the coast of
Venezuela to 18N. A broad 1006 mb low pressure center is analyzed
along the wave north of the coast of Venezuela at 11.5N 62.8W.
Fresh to strong easterly winds are observed north of the low, with
seas of 8-10 ft. This system is moving westward around 15 kt.
Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 07N to 14N between 55W and 68W. Although the system is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
southern Windward Islands and adjacent waters, satellite and radar
imagery from Barbados show that it is not well organized. The
system is forecast to move generally westward near the northern
coast of South America, and interaction with land is likely to
hinder significant development during the next day or so. After
that time, environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next two to three days when the system is over the
south-central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale
force, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands,
northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the
next day or two. Interests in those locations, in addition to
those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress
of this system. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone
development over the next 48 hours and a high chance through 5
days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 10N28W, where the convergent flow is interrupted by Tropical
Depression Twelve. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to 08N58W. No
significant convection is noted along or near the monsoon trough
and ITCZ.

The eastern segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the SW Caribbean and is triggering scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection within 120 nm from the coast of
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and northern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Overall, the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of weak high
pressure and favorable marine conditions. A NW-SE oriented
surface trough extends from near Houston, Texas to the central
Gulf of Mexico near 23N89W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
northeast of the trough. Northeast of this trough, winds are
gentle to moderate from the NE-E with 2-3 ft seas. Southwest of
the trough, winds are light to gentle from the NE-E with 1-2 ft
seas. A weak cold front extends through the Straits of Florida to
north of the Yucatan Channel, with scattered weak showers along
and near portions of the boundary.

For the forecast, the cold front will drift south through the end
of the week, then stall and dissipate by late Sat. High pressure
north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds
and slight to moderate seas through Thu. Another cold front is
expected to move into the coastal Gulf States on Fri, the central
Gulf Sat and the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun,
then stall. Expect fresh northeast to east winds across the
southeastern Gulf starting Fri and through Sun night as the
pressure gradient tightens between high pressure north of the
fronts and lower pressure in the western Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on the
tropical wave and associated broad low pressure area located north
of the coast of Venezuela in the southeastern Caribbean Sea.

Outside of impacts from the tropical wave/broad low pressure, the
pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure over South America is supporting moderate easterly winds
in the central and eastern Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas. A surface
trough is analyzed along the coast from the Gulf of Honduras to
Honduras and Nicaragua, with moderate winds north of the trough
offshore Honduras. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also
noted from 15N to 17N between 82W and 85W. For the remainder of
the Caribbean Sea, gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, other than the tropical wave/broad low pressure,
gentle to moderate northeast winds slight to moderate seas are
expected across the basin through late Fri, except for winds
increasing to moderate to fresh over most of the western Caribbean
Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between
the low pressure area and strong high pressure north of the
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin.

A mostly dry cold front is analyzed from just west of Bermuda to
31N67W, across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida.
Behind the front winds are moderate from the north with 5-7 ft
seas, some of which is swell from a mid-Atlantic storm. Ahead of
the front and west of 65W, winds are light to gentle and variable,
with 3-5 ft seas. East of 65W, moderate to fresh southerly winds
are north of 27N and east of the front to 58W, along with 5-7 ft
seas. In the central Atlantic, high pressure north of the area is
the dominate feature with moderate easterly winds and 4-6 ft
seas. A tighter pressure gradient in the eastern Atlantic is
causing fresh to strong NE-E winds and 6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall from near
Bermuda to the southern Bahamas and the Straits of Florida Fri.
The front will dissipate by late Sat. Another cold front will
sweep southeastward reaching from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas and to vicinity South Florida and the Straits of Florida
Sun and also stall. Expect for northeast winds to increase to
fresh speeds over the southwest part of the area and Straits of
Florida starting late Thu as the gradient tightens between the
fronts and strong high pressure to the north of them.

$$
Lewitsky
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