[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 052036
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
500 PM AST Wed Oct 05 2022

Deep convection had been stripped away well to the northeast of the
depression's low-level center for much of the morning. Just
recently, there has been a small burst of convection occurring
nearer to the center. The Dvorak intensity estimates have changed
little from the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial advisory
remains 30 kt. Persistent, strong southwesterly shear and dry air
entrainment should cause the depression to struggle to maintain
organized deep convection, and the system is forecast to become a
remnant low on Thursday. Based on some of the global model pressure
fields, it is possible that the surface low may become ill-defined
by Thursday as well, if not shortly thereafter. There was no change
to the NHC intensity forecast from the previous one.

After wobbling westward for a few hours this morning, the depression
has resumed a west-northwestward motion, or 300/9 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates in a
couple of days as it remains to the south-southwest of a subtropical
ridge. The latest NHC track forecast was little changed from the
previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 16.3N  32.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 17.1N  33.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 18.2N  35.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0600Z 19.0N  37.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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