[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Oct 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Twelve...
As of 05/0300 UTC, Newly formed Tropical Depression (TD) Twelve
is centered at 15.3N 30.4W or 375 nm west of the Cabo Verde
Islands. It is moving NNW at 8 kt with an estimated minimum
central pressure of 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt
with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas are peaking at 6 to 8 ft near
and north of the center. Numerous moderate convection is seen near
and northeast of the center. TD Twelve is forecast to maintain its
currently intensity and NNW to NW motion through Thursday.
Afterward, it is expected to gradually dissipate. Please refer to
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/050236.shtml?
and NHC Forecast Advisory at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/050235.shtml?
for more details.

Tropical Wave/Broad Low Pressure...
A tropical wave extends southward from east of the Windward
Islands at 17N58W through a 1007 mb low near 11N58W to near the
Guyana-Suriname border. This system is moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Fresh to strong E to SE winds with 7 to 10 ft seas are evident up
to 270 nm north and east of the low center, including waters near
Barbados. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
flaring up from Venezuela-Guyana coast to 13N between 57W and 60W.
For the chances of further development on this system, it is
medium for the next 48 hours and high for the next 5 days.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding,
as well as gusty winds, are expected over portions of the
Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC
Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in those
locations, in addition to those in Central America, should
continue to monitor the progress of this system. Please refer to
the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the African coast
near the Senegal-Gambia border through the aforementioned Tropical
Depression (TD) Twelve to near 09N42W. Besides convection
associated with TD Twelve, scattered moderate convection is
present near the trough from 07N to 10N between 35W and 41W; and
also south of the trough from 08N to 14N between 27W and 31W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found from the
coast of Guinea Bissau southward to Sierra Leone. An ITCZ
continues from 09N42W through 09N50W to 12N56W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is occurring up to 80 nm along either side of
the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms near Panama and northwest
Colombia, and adjacent Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana is causing
scattered showers at the north-central and east-central Gulf. A
dry reinforcing cold front extends westward from near Naples,
Florida to the eastern Gulf near 26N88W. Gentle to moderate NE to
ENE winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft are present across the eastern
Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Mainly gentle NE winds with 1 to 2 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will slowly move southward
across the southeastern Gulf for the next few days. It is
expected to stall and gradually dissipate over the Straits of
Florida Fri through Sat. High pressure north of the area will
maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to moderate
seas through Thu. Another cold front is expected to move into the
northern Gulf Fri, reach the central Gulf Sat and then stall over
the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun through Sun
night. Expect fresh NE to E winds across the southeastern Gulf
Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between
high pressure and lower pressure in the western Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on the
tropical wave/broad low pressure, located east of the southern
Windward Islands.

A surface trough curves northwestward from a 1010 mb low off the
northern Nicaragua coast to near the Belize-Mexico border.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the west
central basin, including the Cayman Islands. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
exist over the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and
seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident at the central basin. Light to
gentle with locally moderate northerly winds and seas of 2 to 4
ft prevail for western basin.

For the forecast, the broad low pressure mentioned in the Special
Features section will move across the Caribbean through Sat
night, possibly as a tropical cyclone. It will bring strong winds
and rough seas to the Leeward and Windward Islands tonight, the
eastern and central Caribbean through Fri, and the southwestern
Caribbean through Sat night before moving into Central America.
Interests across the region should monitor the progress of this
system. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds with slight to
moderate seas are expected through late Fri, except for winds
increasing to moderate to fresh over most of the western Caribbean
Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between
the low pressure and strong high pressure north of the Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on newly formed Tropical
Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin, and the low
pressure east of the Windward Islands.

A mostly dry reinforcing cold front curves southwestward from
west of Bermuda across 31N70W and the northwest Bahamas to
southern Florida near Fort Lauderdale. Convergent southerly winds
to the east are producing scattered moderate convection from 22N
to 28N between 59W and 70W. A pronounced upper-level low near
28N33W is generating scattered moderate convection near its center
from 23N to 29N between 32W and 35W, and farther east from the
northern Cabo Verde Islands northeastward to the Canary Islands.

The Atlantic ridge near and north of 31N is channeling gentle to
locally moderate NE to E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north
of 21N between the northwest African coast and 65W. Farther west,
moderate N to NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas in northerly swell are
seen behind the cold front; while gentle SW to S winds and seas at
5 to 7 ft are east of the front to 65W. To the south outside the
influence of the broad low pressure, gentle to locally moderate NE
to ENE trades with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident from 10N to 21N
between 34W and the Lesser Antilles. For the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin not including waters near Tropical Depression
Twelve, light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with 5 to 7
ft seas in southerly swell are present.

For the forecast west of 55W, the dry cold front will stall from
near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida Thu
night, before dissipating by late Sat. Another cold front will
sweep southeastward, reaching from near Bermuda across the
central Bahamas to southern Florida/Florida Straits Sun and then
stall. Expect NE winds to increase to fresh over the southwest
part of the area and Straits of Florida starting late Thu as the
gradient tightens between the fronts and strong high pressure to
the north. Seas up to 9 ft in northeast swell to the north of the
Bahamas and east of northeast Florida will subside through Wed.

$$

Chan
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