[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Oct 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms have increased today in association with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands. A 1008 mb low is analyzed near 11N28W
along with numerous strong convection from 10N to 14N between 24W
and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to
17N between 21W and 33W. Environmental conditions are conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form in a day or two. Further development will become less likely
late this week due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is
forecast to move west-northwestward and then turn northwestward by
mid-week over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system has a
medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours, and a high chance through 5 days. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 52W with a 1012mb low pressure along the
wave axis near 09N52W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 07N to 18N between 49W and 56W.
Slow development is possible during the next several days while
the wave moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the
Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek.
Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
the system. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone
development through the next 48 hours, and also through 5 days.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
Guinea Bissau near 12N16W and extends to 11N27W to 07N36W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N36W to 09N48W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 03N to 11N between 32W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure centered near the Great Lakes extends a ridge
southward to the Gulf, which is maintaining dry and stable
conditions throughout the region, with the associated gradient
allowing for gentle to moderate north to northeast winds and
relatively low seas of 1-3 ft. There are two weak surface troughs,
one across the NE basin and another in the SW gulf, however both
lack any significant convection.

For the forecast, a front over the southeastern U.S. will move
southward across the eastern Gulf tonight through Tue night,
followed by another area of relatively weak high pressure. This
will allow for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds to
prevail mainly over the NE Gulf. High pressure will then remain
centered just N of the area through Fri night. Moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds will develop over the southeastern Gulf
and Straits of Florida starting early Fri as a tight gradient
builds behind a cold front that will reach the vicinity of South
Florida and the Florida Keys.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough persists over the west-central Caribbean, and
extends from central Cuba SW to the offshore waters of Nicaragua.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with it are
affecting the offshore waters of Jamaica, NE Honduras and
Nicaragua. Light to gentle winds along with relatively low seas
of 1-3 ft are present over the western half of the basin, while
gentle to moderate east to northeast trade wind and seas of 3-5
ft remain over the eastern Caribbean with locally fresh winds in
the south-central region along the coast of Venezuela and
Colombia.

For the forecast, the surface trough will persist over the west-
central Caribbean from offshore of NE Nicaragua to eastern Cuba
along 77W through Wed. Weak Atlantic high pressure will remain
centered across the central Atlantic through Thu before retreating
to the NE. A tropical wave currently along 52W will reach the
Lesser Antilles Wed and move into the eastern Caribbean Wed night.
Some improved organization of this wave is possible during the
next few days, and a tropical depression could form. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected
across the basin through late Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features and Tropical Waves and
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the
Atlantic Basin.

A cold front extends from 31N66W SW to Andros Island. Moderate to
fresh N to NE winds and seas to 8 ft follow the front, which is
supporting scattered showers and tstms ahead of the boundary all
the way to 60W where winds are mainly variable, and light to
gentle. Surface ridging dominates the remainder Atlantic
subtropical waters, except for a low that weakens the ridge near
29N31W, however it lacks significant convection. Light to gentle
winds are in the central and eastern subtropical waters with seas
to 5 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
31N69W to central Cuba by late tonight as a reinforcing cold
front moves into the northwest part of the area behind it. The
fronts will gradually merge from near 31N70W to 24N79W Wed
morning, then drift SE and across the central Bahamas through Fri.
Fresh northerly winds will follow the second front across the NW
waters tonight through Tue night. Fresh northeast winds will
develop N of the weakening boundary Thu through Fri, across the NW
Bahamas and into the Straits of Florida.

$$
Ramos
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