[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 031140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form around the middle part of this
week.  Further development will become less likely by the end of the
week due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is forecast to
move westward, then turn northwestward or northward by the end of
the week over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands have
become slightly better organized since yesterday.  Some further
development of the wave is possible, and a tropical depression
could form within the next few days while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the
eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek.  Interests in the Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown
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