[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031122
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave embedded within an elongated
area of low pressure has its axis near 32W from 03N to 15N. It is
moving westward at about 5 kt. Disorganized scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 05N to 14N between 28W-35W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
around the middle part of this week. Further development will
become less likely by the end of the week due to increasing upper-
level winds. The system is forecast to move westward, then turn
northwestward or northward by the end of the week over the eastern
tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A broad mid-Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 51W from 04N
to 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from
08N to 11N and from 14n to 17N. Similar convection is east of the
wave from 11N to 14N between the wave and 45W. Further development
of the wave is possible, however, and a tropical depression could
form during the next few days while it moves generally westward
at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern
Caribbean Sea by midweek. This system has a low chance of tropical
cyclone development through the next 48 hours, and a medium
chance through 5 days. For the latest formation chances on this
tropical wave, please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at
hurricanes.gov.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast near the
Senegal-Gambia border near 10N27W and continues southwestward to
10N26W and to 07N35W, where overnight scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to east
of a tropical wave near 10N48W. It resumes west of the tropical
wave to near 10N60W. In addition to convection associated to the
tropical waves mentioned above, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 180 nm north of the trough between
24W-28W, and within 120 nm north of the of the ITCZ between
35W-38W and within 60 nm northeast of the trough between 44W-48W.
Numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ
between 35W-38W, and also near the Guinea Bissau-Guinea coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the southwestern Gulf near 22N97W
east-southeast to across the northern Yucatan Peninsula and
continues to a 1010 mb low in the western Caribbean Sea near
15N82W. Isolated showers are possible near the trough. Another
surface trough is over the NE Gulf near 29N and east of 90W.
No convection is noted with this trough. Moderate northeast winds
are behind it. Otherwise, high pressure stretching southward from
the upper Great Lakes to the Gulf is maintaining dry and stable
conditions throughout the Gulf, with the associated gradient
allowing for gentle to moderate north to northeast winds and
relatively low seas of 2-4 ft per buoy observations and an
altimeter pass that detected the seas over the far eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the trough over the NE Gulf will sink to near
27N east of 90W today, while at the same time, high pressure from
the central U.S. continues to build southward over the region.
A frontal trough currently over the southeastern U.S. will
transition into a cold front and move southward across the eastern
Gulf tonight through Tue night, followed by another area of
relatively weak high pressure. This will allow for moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds to occur mainly over the NE Gulf.
These winds then become east gentle to moderate on Wed, with
little change expected through Fri night. Moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds will develop over the southeastern Gulf
starting Fri as a tight gradient builds behind a cold front that
will reach the vicinity of South Florida and the Keys.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
east-southeastward to across the northern Yucatan Peninsula and
to a 1010 mb low just east of the Honduras-Nicaragua border, and
from there to just offshore of southern Nicaragua. Clusters of
scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 13N to 15N
between 78W-and the coast of the Honduras-Nicaragua border. An
overnight ASCAT pass depicted fresh northwest to north winds west
of the low and the tough segment that extends south of the low.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from near
the Windward Passage southwestward to eastern Jamaica and to
near 15N78W. Similar activity is over and adjacent to some
sections of the Lesser Antilles, and over the south-central
waters from 12N to 15N between 73W-76W. Locally moderate to
fresh winds and higher seas are in and near the heaviest of the
showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, light to gentle winds
along with relatively low seas of 1-3 ft are present over the
western part of the basin, while gentle to moderate east to
southeast trade wind and seas of 3-5 ft remain over the rest of
the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough is forecast
to persist in the general area through at least Wed. A tropical
wave currently east of the forecast Tropical N Atlantic waters has
its axis near 51W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
increasing with this wave. Further development of the wave is
possible, however, and a tropical depression could form during the
next few days while it moves generally westward, reaching the
Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas
are expected across the basin over the next few days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low off the
Mid-Atlantic coast south-southwest through 31N71W to 28N74W, where
it continues as a stationary front across the NW Bahamas and to
near 24N80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
within 60-90 nm east-southeast of the cold and stationary fronts.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are east of this activity from
22N to 31N between 61W-69W due to upper dynamics provided by an
upper-level trough that extends from 31N72W to 25N69W and to near
21N67W. Another upper-level trough runs northward from east of
the Leeward Islands at 15N55W to an upper-level low near 23N55W.
At the surface, a trough is analyzed from just east of Barbados
to 18N59W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and
within 60 nm of this trough. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are increasing within 120 nm of the low in the S semicircle.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the low
in the N semicircle. In the east Atlantic, a nearly stationary
upper-level low is seen on water vapor imagery to be near 30N31W.
Broad upper troughing with this feature is noted from 20N to 35N
and between 20W-40W. At the surface, a trough extends from 31N29W
to 27N30W and to 23N36W. Another trough is analyzed from 31N34W to
28N39W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly attributed
to the upper-level low, are from 28N to 33N between 27W-32W.
Isolated showers are possible along and near the surface troughs.
A cold front dropping southward extends from 31N36W to 31N40W and
northwestward to 32N43W, where it becomes stationary to 34N48W.
No convection is seen with this front as it is surrounded by a
pretty stable air mass. Please refer to the Special Features and
Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The 1021 mb Bermuda High near 31N51W is supporting light to
gentle winds and seas of about 2-4 ft north of 20N between
30W-60W. An overnight altimeter pass helped confirm these
seas. To the west, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds
along with seas of 4-6 ft are north of 20N between 60W and the
Georgia- Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, light to gentle
winds and seas of 4-6 ft due to a northerly swell exist north of
20N between the northwest coast of Africa and 30W. Farther south,
gentle to moderate northeast to east trade wind and seas of 5 to 8
ft are evident from 10N to 20N between central African coast and
the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly
winds along with seas of 4-7 ft seas due to a southerly swell
prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
reach from near 31N68W to 27N73W and to eastern Cuba by late
tonight as a stronger cold front moves into the northwest part of
the area from near 31N76W to near Melbourne, Florida. The second
front will merge with the first front late Tue night. The merged
front will reach from near 31N66W to 27N69W and to 24N71W, where
it will weaken to eastern Cuba by late Wed night. Fresh northerly
winds will follow the second front and merged front through late
Wed night. The merged front will stall reach from near 31N64W to
26N68W, to the central Bahamas and to the vicinity of South
Florida and the Keys late Thu. Fresh northeast winds will begin to
develop in the southwest part of the area, including the Straits
of Florida, as the pressure gradient tightens behind the
stationary frontal boundary. These conditions are expected to last
into Fri night.

$$
Aguirre
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