[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Oct 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 30W/31W, from 03N to 14N, moving W
slowly at 5 kt. Scattered showers are from 04N to 13N between 22W
and 38W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable
for some gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form around the middle part of this week. The system is
forecast to move westward, then turn northwestward or northward by
the end of the week over the eastern tropical Atlantic. It has a
low chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a
high chance through the next 5 days. For the latest information,
please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov.

A tropical wave extends along 47W, from 04N to 16N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 16N between
41W and 58W. Some gradual development of the wave is possible
during the next few days while it moves generally westward at 15
to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean
Sea by midweek. This disturbance has a low chance of tropical
cyclone development through 48 hours and within the next 5 days.
For the latest information, please read the Tropical Weather
Outlook at hurricanes.gov.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the coast of Africa through the coast
of Senegal near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 07N31W and
07N38W. The ITCZ extends from 07N38W to 08N46W and then from
09N49W to 09N58W. For convection details, see the tropical waves
section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dry continental airmass continues to advance across the Gulf of
Mexico, maintaining favorable marine conditions. Light to locally
moderate northerly winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through the middle of the week producing gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and slight seas. A cold front could briefly
reach the NE waters tonight into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extending from eastern Cuba to a low in the
Nicaragua offshore waters to the northern Panama offshore waters
along with divergent flow aloft continue to support scattered
showers and tstms in the Windward Passage, Jamaica adjacent waters
and the SW Caribben W of 75W. Isolated showers are occuring in
the SE basin. The Bermuda High against lower pressure associated
with the E Pacific monsoon trough continue to support moderate to
fresh winds in the south-central and SE basin where seas are in
the 3-4 ft range. Moderate northerly winds are behind the surface
trough mainly in the eastern Honduras and Nicaragua offshore
waters. Light to gentle variable winds and seas in the 1-3 ft
range are elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface trough is forecast to persist over
the west-central Caribbean through at least Tue. A tropical wave
is located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. It
axis is now near 47W. Some gradual development of the wave is
possible during the next few days while it moves generally
westward at 15 kt, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern
Caribbean Sea by midweek. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and
slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas to just
off SE Florida near 24N81W. Scattered showers are affecting the
waters N of 25N and between the front and 69W. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are found N of 25N and between the front and 70W,
while moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted N of 25N,
between 70W and 58W. Seas of 4-7 ft are occurring N of 25N and
between the front and 58W. The remainder of the western Atlantic W
of 55W is observing moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft.
Low-level convergence is generating a few showers from 21N to 26N
and between 62W and 66W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive
ridge positioned over the central Atlantic, maintaining tranquil
weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are seen on
satellite-derived wind data south of the monsoon trough, between
19W and 32W. Seas in these waters are 4-5 ft. Outside of the deep
tropics, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends east of
Florida from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas. This front will be
reinforced by a cold front moving off of the coast of NE Florida
today. The combined frontal boundary will continue moving east
across the western Atlantic reaching from 31N70W to the central
Bahamas on Mon, and from 31N66W to the SE Bahamas on Tue. At the
same time, another cold front will move off NE Florida Mon night
into Tue followed by moderate to fresh winds and building seas.

$$
Ramos
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