[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 010840
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 01 2022

Ian's circulation continues to wind down, and marine observations
off the coast of North Carolina and Virginia, as well as earlier
ASCAT data, indicate that maximum winds in the southerly flow south
of the warm front have dropped below gale force.  The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory, with those winds
occurring over the Atlantic waters.  The bulk of the associated
rainfall is located north and west of the occluded/warm front,
stretching from the southern Appalachians northward across the
Mid-Atlantic states.

Ian's center has turned north-northwestward and slowed down over
central North Carolina, with an initial motion of 345/10 kt.  The
system is forecast to turn back to the north and slow down further
later today, and global model fields indicate that the low center
should dissipate over south-central Virginia by this evening.
This is indicated in the new official forecast.  A new frontal
low may form on the triple point over the Delmarva Peninsula or
adjacent Atlantic waters and scoot eastward later today or tonight.

Although seas 12 feet or greater continue over portions of the
adjacent Atlantic waters, they are not indicated in this forecast
package since they are so far east of Ian's center.  Information on
seas and high winds over marine areas can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

This is the last advisory on Ian issued by the National Hurricane
Center.  Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11
AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on
the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


Key Messages:

1. Ongoing major to record river flooding will continue through
next week across portions of central Florida. Limited flash, urban,
and small stream flooding is possible across portions of the
central Appalachians and the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

2. Gusty winds are expected across portions of the central and
southern Appalachians through this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 35.7N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  01/1800Z 36.8N  79.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net