[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290421
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0405 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
early on Wed followed by strong to near gale force N-NE winds.
Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed
and early Wed night. A Gale Warning has been issued for Wed
afternoon and evening offshore the Texas coast, where frequent
gusts to 35 kt are anticipated. As a result, seas will build to 8
to 10 ft in the NW Gulf, and continue into Thu. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will precede the front. Winds and seas will
diminish late Thu. For details on this Gale Warning, please read
the latest Offshore Zones Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 05N23W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N23W to 04N37W to
02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 08N
and between 40W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from southern Florida to
24N86W and no significant convection is seen near this boundary. A
few showers have made it into the eastern Bay of Campeche from
western Yucatan, but this activity is expected to dissipate in the
next couple of hours. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under
a weak pressure gradient and fairly tranquil weather conditions.
Gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail across the basin,
occasionally reaching fresh speeds off NW Yucatan and NW Gulf.
Seas are 1-3 ft across the Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the area will shift
eastward through late Tue night as a strong cold front approaches
eastern Texas. This cold front will enter the NW Gulf early on
Wed followed by strong to near gale force north to northeast
winds. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on
Wed and early Wed night. This front will reach from northern
Florida to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed night, and from central
Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico early Thu. The front will reach
the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida late Thu and become
stationary through late Fri while it weakens. Strong high pressure
behind the front will shift eastward through Fri night allowing
for winds to become easterly and moderate to fresh in speeds
across most of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
precede the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers dot the SW Caribbean Sea, especially near the coast
of Panama. Generally tranquil weather conditions prevail
elsewhere. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the Caribbean and lower pressures across northern South America
result in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the central
and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas in
these waters are 4-7 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes are
prevalent in the NW Caribbean, except for locally fresh in the
Gulf of Honduras and near the adjacent Bay Islands. Seas in the
waters described are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain north of the area through
most of the week maintaining moderate to fresh easterly breezes
across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Winds may pulse to
strong speeds at night south of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage Tue through Thu, then become rather persistent through
Sat night, including also in the lee of Cuba as high pressure
strengthens over the mid-Atlantic states.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and southern
Florida. No deep convection is associated with this feature.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are noted off NW Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft are
found in the remainder of the western tropical Atlantic, primarily
west of 65W. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N36W
to 29N39W, becoming a dissipating stationary front to 24N50W. Also
there is no significant convection near this boundary.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive
subtropical ridge north of the area. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds are present south of 20N and west of 35W, along
with seas of 7-12 ft. A large swell area encompasses much of the
central tropical Atlantic, producing seas of 12-20 ft, especially
north of 20N and between 30W and 60W. Fresh to locally strong N-NE
winds are evident on recent scatterometer satellite wind data
east of 35W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Morocco
and Western Sahara. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. In the rest
of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a weak cold front extending from 31N70W to
south Florida will reach from 31N64W to the central Bahamas and to
the Straits of Florida by Tue morning, and from near 30N55W to
24N65W and stationary to the central Bahamas and dissipating to
the Straits of Florida by Wed morning. The frontal boundary will
dissipate by early Thu as broad surface troughing forms east of
the forecast waters. A strong cold front will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast late Wed night, reach from near 31N67W to
the NW Bahamas and to South Florida Thu night, then become
stationary near 25N by late Fri as strong high pressure builds
across the area in its wake. Fresh to strong northeast to east
winds and building seas to around 15 ft are expected north and
northeast of the Bahamas Fri and Fri night.

$$
DELGADO
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