[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Nov 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W, to
03N30W 02N44W 02N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 360 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ, and within 210 nm to the south of the same boundary.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N
southward from 50W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, to 24N90W, to
21N93W. The front is stationary from 21N93W to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is to the east of the line that runs from the
Florida Big Bend near the cold front, to 27N90W, to the coast of
Mexico that is near 24N98W. A 1015 mb high pressure center is near
26N92W.

Fresh to locally strong westerly winds, and sea heights that range
from 4 feet to 7 feet, are in the northern Gulf waters,
especially from 27N northward. An elevated site, that is about 65
nm to the east of the mouth of the Mississippi River, was
reporting winds of 30 knots, during the midnight hours. Moderate
or slower wind speeds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4
feet, are elsewhere in the basin.

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to 22N93W, where
it becomes a stationary front to the Bay of Campeche. The front
will weaken as it moves through the NE Gulf today. Fresh to strong
winds behind the front will diminish in the NE Gulf waters today.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front and prevail
through midweek, when a cold front moves into the NW Gulf. Winds
will increase to strong speeds behind the front, spreading across
the W Gulf and into the SW Gulf and northern Gulf waters Wed
through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb shows a NE-to-SW oriented trough that is
along 17N55W 14N70W, and curving along the coast of Colombia to
10N77W. A surface trough is along 21N59W, to Guadeloupe, to NE
Venezuela near 10N63W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is from 08N to 11N between 57W and 63W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 13N southward
between 50W and 65W. Isolated moderate covers the remainder of the
area that is from 72W eastward in the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery between
60W and 83W, within 330 nm to the south of 20N along 60W, and
within 520 nm to the south of 20N along 83W.

The monsoon trough is along 11N between 75W in northern Colombia
and beyond the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border, into the tropical NE
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is between central Nicaragua and 80W, and from
09N to the monsoon trough between the coast of Colombia and 79W.

The 1022 mb high pressure center that is between Bermuda and the
SE United States is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds,
and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, in the central
and eastern Caribbean Sea, primarily from 11N to 18N. Moderate or
slower wind speeds, and slight seas, are in the remainder of the
basin.

Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that
ended at 27/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN, are: 1.09 in Trinidad, and
0.22 in Curacao.

High pressure will persist north of the area through most of the
upcoming week sustaining moderate to fresh easterly breezes across
the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Winds may pulse to strong
speeds at night south of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage Tue
through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds in the NW Caribbean
will develop Tue and continue through the remainder of the
forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N45W to 28N50W to 24N60W to 24N64W.
A dissipating stationary front continues from 24N64W to 24N70W to
25N75W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 180 nm to the southeast of the cold front from
56W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm
on either side of the frontal boundary. A 1022 mb high pressure
center is near 31N69W, about 420 nm to the north of the
dissipating stationary front. A 1030 mb high pressure center is
near 39N23W. A surface ridge passes through 31N28W to 25N35W to
19N50W. Fresh to strong SW winds, and sea heights that range from
8 feet to 10 feet, are in advance of the front, from 26N northward
from 35W westward. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds, and sea heights
that range from 8 feet to 13 feet, are behind the frontal boundary,
especially east of 70W. The comparatively highest seas in these
waters are near 31N61W, and more northward. The surface pressure
gradient, that exists between the 1030 mb high pressure center,
and comparatively lower surface pressures that are in the deep
tropics, support moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds,
and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 9 feet, from 20N
southward from 35W westward. The comparatively fastest winds are
near 10N39W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds, and sea heights
that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, are in the eastern Atlantic
Ocean, primarily from 35W eastward. Moderate or slower wind
speeds, and moderate seas, cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from 25N55W to 24N64W, becoming a stationary
to the NW Bahamas. The stationary front will continue to weaken
and dissipate by Mon. Another cold front will move off the coast
of Florida tonight. Strong winds will prevail east of the front
before diminishing on Mon morning. The front will extend from near
Bermuda to South Florida early Tue, then stall and weaken along
25N Wed. Another cold front will move off the coast of Florida
Thu.

$$
mt/al
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