[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N52W to 25N65W
then stationary to 25N70W. A scatterometer satellite pass from
0100 UTC confirmed gale force winds along the cold front near
30N50W. Strong to near-gale force winds are evident within 90 nm
either side of the cold front north of 27N, with 10 to 12 ft seas.
Winds will diminish through the morning low pressure north of the
region moves farther northeastward away from the area. However,
seas in excess of 12 ft will prevail through tonight as
northwesterly swell propagates in.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the
website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to
04N35W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
03N to 05N between 25W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front reaches from near Cameron, Louisiana to near
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. 1015 mb high pressure is building over the
western Gulf in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong winds are
evident either side of the front north of 27N. Wave heights are 5
to 7 ft west of the front in NW swell, with generally 3 to 5 ft
over the central Gulf east of the front, and 1 to 3 ft over the
eastern Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active
within 90 nm east of the front north of 27N.

For the forecast, the front will weaken as it moves through the
northeast Gulf today. Fresh to strong winds behind the front will
diminish through the early morning in the western Gulf and later
today elsewhere in the northern Gulf waters. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front and prevail through midweek, when a
cold front moves into the NW Gulf by midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE
winds in the Windward Passage, where wave heights are reaching 5
ft. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge to the northeast of the basin and lower pressures over South
America is leading to moderate to fresh E trades across the
basin, except for gentle to moderate E breezes over the northern
Caribbean. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft, but 2 to 4 ft in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds will
prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through
midweek as a strong ridge remains north of the area. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for details on gale
conditions along 30N to the SE of Bermuda.

As already mentioned in the Special Features section, the cold
front associated with the gale warning extends from 31N52W to
25N65W then stationary to 25N70W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are evident within 300 nm east of the front. The
scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong SW winds
in the area of showers and thunderstorms. Moderate winds are noted
elsewhere north of 26N on either side of the front between 25W and
75W, but wave heights are reaching as high as 8 to 12 ft in NW
swell. Moderate to fresh trade winds persist south of 20N with 6
to 9 ft seas in a mix of NW and E swell. Gentle to moderate
breezes persist elsewhere with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front along 25N will
continue to weaken and dissipate by Mon. Strong winds prevailing
north of 29N and west of the front will diminish below strong
force by this afternoon. Seas will diminish across the region
through today. Southerly winds will increase off northeast
Florida today ahead of another cold front expected to move off
the coast tonight. Expect fresh to strong winds north of 29N and
west of 77W before diminishing on Mon morning.

$$
Christensen
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