[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure area off the
Carolina coast will rapidly intensify as it moves to the north of
Bermuda later this morning. A trailing cold front will sweep
rapidly eastward along with the low pressure. For waters south of
31N later this morning, this pattern will support strong to gale
force winds north of 27N east of the front, and north of 28N west
of front. Wave heights will build to 8 to 13 ft north of 28N. The
gale force winds will reach as far as 50W north of 30N through
early evening, then winds will diminish below gale force as
supporting the low pressure shifts farther north of the area.
Elsewhere, strong to near-gale force winds along with rough seas
will expand eastward with the front across the area north of 26N
through this evening. Winds will diminish through tonight, but
large NW swell will persist across the waters north of 22N and
east of 70W through late Sun.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, then continues to 08N17W. The ITCZ extends from
08N17W to 04N35W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 32W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front reaches from near Saint Marks, Florida across
the northern Gulf to a nearly stationary 1012 mb low pressure area
centered off South Texas near 27N96W. A cold front extends from
the low pressure to near Poza Rica, Mexico. Scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms are active within 90 nm of the low pressure
area. Nearby platforms indicate fresh NE to E winds are evident
over the far northwest Gulf, north of the front, along with 4 to 6
ft seas. Fresh NW to N winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are likely off
the coast of Tamaulipas west of the cold front. Generally light to
gentle winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the portion of the front east of the low will
lift north overnight. Another cold front will move into the
western Gulf Saturday, merging with the residual boundary south of
the low. This front will weaken as it moves through the northeast
Gulf Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and
prevail through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the
area and lower pressure over the southwest Caribbean is tight
enough to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern
and central Caribbean with 5 to 7 ft seas. Trade wind convergence
is supporting a small area of showers and thunderstorms between
Honduras and Jamaica. Light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the current pattern will sustain moderate to
fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean south of Hispaniola
through Sun night, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Fresh
winds are expected across the SE Caribbean Sun night through Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section on the Gale Warning
issued for the central Atlantic waters.

A cold front extends from 31N37W to 25N55W, then is stationary to
20N65W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are evident within 90 nm east
of the front. Combined seas to 8 ft are evident north of the
front, mainly in NW swell. Moderate to fresh trade winds and wave
heights of 7 to 9 ft in NW swell extend across the tropical
Atlantic south of 20N. Moderate NE winds are noted off the northwest
coast of Africa, with 6 to 8 ft seas in NW swell. Mostly light to
gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas in NW swell are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, southerly winds will increase off
northeast Florida Sun ahead of a reinforcing front expected to
move off the coast Sun night. This front will reach from Bermuda
to the Florida Straits Mon night, then from 31N59W to the Straits
of Florida Tue night before starting to slowly weaken.

$$
Christensen
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