[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The 24-hour forecast
consists of: a cold front, that will move into the central
Atlantic Ocean, and be along 31N63W 28N71W 28N80W. Expect W
gale-force winds, and sea heights to range from 9 feet to 11
feet, from 30.5N to 31N between 62W and 64W. Please, read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at the
website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W, to
06N30W and to 06N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate, to isolated strong, is from 10N southward
from 50W eastward. Middle level cyclonic wind flow, with a
trough, covers the area that is from 10N to 20N between 50W and
60W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 20N southward between 50W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the coastal plains of south central
Louisiana, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near
Brownsville, Texas. A cold front continues from the 1013 mb low
pressure center, southward, to 20.5N97W at the coast of Mexico.
The front continues inland, to a 1011 mb low pressure center
that is near 21N100W. A surface trough passes through coastal
Louisiana near 90.5W, to 28N92.5W, to 24.5N95W. Precipitation:
Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 60 nm of
the coast of Texas from 27N to 29N between 94W and 96W, and
within 45 nm to the ESE of the surface trough between 90W and
92W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 26N
northward from 85W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is in the remainder of the area that is from 29N southward from
90W eastward.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the north of the front. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds are to the southeast of the front.
Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern Gulf, and 3-6 ft in the western
Gulf. The exception is for the seas to be ranging from 6 feet to
7 feet to the west of the front.

A cold front extends from southeast Louisiana to northern
Mexico. The front will meander today and then lift north
tonight. Another cold front will move into the western Gulf
Saturday. This front will weaken quickly as it moves through the
northeast Gulf Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front and prevail through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from Colombia near 75W,
beyond Panama and Costa Rica, and into the tropical NE Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 17N southward from 72W westward.

The surface pressure gradient, that is between NW Atlantic Ocean
high pressure and comparatively lower surface pressures that are
in the SW Caribbean Sea, is supporting moderate easterly winds
and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, in most of the
Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that
range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the NW corner of the area.

High pressure over the NW Atlantic and lower pressure over the
southwest Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds
over the central Caribbean south of Hispaniola through Sun
night, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Fresh winds are
expected across the SE Caribbean Sun night
through Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the gale-force wind warning, for the waters of the central
Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front passes through 31N41W, to 25N55W 27N70W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 28N northward between 38W and 43W. Moderate to fresh N-E
winds are north of the front with gentle winds south of the
front and west of 55W. Strong SW winds are noted ahead of the
front N of 30N and E of 50W. Seas are generally 7-10 ft north of
the front and 5-7 ft south of the front. The central and eastern
Atlantic are dominated by a ridge extending SW from the Madeira
Islands. North of 20N, gentle to moderate winds dominate with
8-10 ft seas composed primarily of northerly swell. South of
20N, winds increase to moderate to fresh from the east
with 7 to 9 ft seas.

A cold front extending from 26N55W to 26N68W will weaken through
tonight. Another cold front will move into the waters off
northeast Florida late today, then move quickly ESE. Strong to
gale force winds will develop north of 27N E of the front on
Sat, and north of 28N W of front. This cold front will reach
from 31N53W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat, then stall and
weaken along 23N by late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish
across the region late Sat through Sun. Southerly winds will
increase off northeast Florida Sun ahead of a reinforcing front
expected to move off the coast Sun night. This front will reach
from Bermuda to the Florida Straits Mon night, then from 31N59W
to the Straits of Florida Tue night.

$$
mt/al
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