[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Nov 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
border of Guinea and Sierra Leone at 09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N17W to 06N35W to the French Guiana near 05N54W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted across a
large area from 03N to 10N between 07W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The stationary front that was in the eastern Gulf for a few days
has finally dissipated, however a remnant convergence line is
noted from near Fort Myers, Florida to 23N94W. Moderate to fresh
NE winds, locally strong, and seas of 6-8 ft are within 180 nm
northwest of the convergence line. Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere
north of the convergence line in the northern waters. A pesky
surface trough continues to linger from near Brownsville, Texas to
the Bay of Campeche near 18.5N93W. Fresh to strong NW winds and
seas of 6-9 ft are west of the trough. Cloudiness prevails both
west of the trough and north of the convergence line. Gentle to
moderate NE-E winds and 4-6 ft seas are south of the convergence
line.

For the forecast, a surface trough combined with high pressure
north of the area will support fresh to strong winds and rough
seas in the central and SW Gulf this morning, diminishing in the
afternoon. Looking ahead, strong NW winds and building seas will
follow a cold front expected to move into the northwest Gulf late
Thu night. Winds may reach near gale force behind the front off
the coast of Mexico west of 95W Fri into Fri night. Winds and seas
will diminish through Sun as the weakening front reaches the
eastern Gulf and broad high pressure builds over the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low spinning over the SE Caribbean is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This convective
activity extends into the Atlantic waters east of the Windward
Islands to about 52W. Fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 6-8
ft are noted in the central Caribbean, highest offshore southern
Hispaniola. Fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas are in the eastern
Caribbean, to 8 ft in Atlantic passages. Gentle to moderate trades
are in the western Caribbean. Seas are 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean,
and 4-6 ft in NE-E swell elsewhere in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will
continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds
across the central and northeast Caribbean this morning, as well
as through the Windward Passage. Winds and seas will diminish
across the basin tonight, except for occasionally fresh E winds
persisting south of Hispaniola and through the Windward Passage.
Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel this
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N44W to 29N55W where it transitions to
a dissipating stationary front and extends through 28N70W to near
Jupiter, Florida. Broken and overcast skies with embedded showers
are observed north of the boundary. Moderate to locally fresh E
winds are noted north of the front. Seas of 7-11 ft in NW swell
have outrun the cold front portion north of 27N between 40W and
60W, with 6-7 ft seas elsewhere north of 27N.

The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1025
mb high centered near 31N25W. The pressure gradient between the
broad ridge extending west of the high pressure center and lower
pressure in the deep tropics is supporting moderate to fresh,
locally strong, NE-E winds across the majority of the central and
eastern Atlantic south of 27N. Seas are 6-10 ft within these
waters. Gentle to moderate winds are north of 27N and east of 50W
under the ridging.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate today.
A frontal trough will move across the waters north of 28N tonight
and Thu, stalling and dissipating along 27N Thu night. Looking
ahead, a another front will move south into the waters north of
28N Fri night, and then shift east of the area through Sat. Yet
another front may move off the northeast Florida coast Sun.

$$
Lewitsky
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