[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Sierra Leone near 09N13W then continues to 08N14W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N14W to 06N30W to 06N52W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 35W and
40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere
from 04N to 08N between 23W and 45W. Similar convection is from
04N to 06N between 12W and 21W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends from South Florida to near
22N90W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are N of the front over the
eastern Gulf while gentle to moderate E to SE winds are S of the
front, including the Yucatan Channel. A weak 1017 mb low pressure
is analyzed near 21N93W with a trough extending NW to near to
the coast of Texas near 28N97W. Fresh to strong NW winds persist
W of the trough axis with seas of 8 to 10 ft. A well defined
swirl of low clouds is observed in satellite imagery associated
with the low center. Multilayer clouds dominate most of the Gulf
waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the
central Gulf, mainly from 22N to 26N between 85W and 94W. Similar
convective activity is seen over the northern Yucatan peninsula.

For the forecast, the above mentioned front will dissipate overnight.
Strong winds and rough seas will persist across the central and
southwest Gulf, but will diminish on Wed. Looking ahead, strong
NW winds and building seas will follow another front expected to
move into the northwest Gulf Thu night. Winds may reach minimal
gale force behind the front off the coast of Mexico west of 95W
Fri. Winds and seas will diminish through Sun as the weakening
front reaches the southeast Gulf and broad high pressure builds
over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low spinning over the SE Caribbean, including the
Windward Islands and NE Venezuela is generating scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms. This convective activity extends into
the Atlantic waters E of the Windward Islands to about 55W. An
area of showers and thunderstorms is near Cabo Gracias a Dios,
Nicaragua. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this
convection. Elsewhere across the basin, patches of low level
moisture with embedded showers are noted. Moderate to fresh
trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted over the east and central
Caribbean, and also across the Windward Passage where seas are 5
to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW Caribbean with
seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will
continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds
across the central and northeast Caribbean into Wed. Winds and
seas will diminish across the basin by Thu, except for
occasionally fresh E winds persisting south of Hispaniola.
Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel
this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N47W to 28N70W to south Florida.
Abundant cloudiness, with possible showers, is just behind the
front. Mainly fresh E winds are noted in the wake of the front
with seas of 8 to 11 ft, highest N of 30N between 50W and 55W.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated by a
1028 mb high pressure centered W of the Madeira Islands near
32N26W. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics is supporting fresh to locally
strong easterly winds across most of the central and eastern
Atlantic south of 25N. Seas are 7-10 ft within these waters based
on several altimeter passes.

For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary will weaken
and drift north to along 31N through tonight before moving
eastward again across the waters north of 28N through Thu.
Looking ahead, a another front will move south into the waters
north of 28N late Fri, and then shift east of the area through
Sat. A third, weaker front may move off the northeast Florida
coast late Sun.

$$
GR
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