[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Nov 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2325 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough continues mostly confined to the African
continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 03N35W to
04N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from 02N to 07N and between 19W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to 24N87W.
Scattered moderate convection is found within 120 nm to the north
of the frontal boundary. A surface trough extends from 19N92W to
27N96W and a few showers are noted near the trough axis. The tight
pressure gradient between the strong ridge to the north and the
lower pressures associated with these boundaries support fresh to
strong NE-E winds over most of the Gulf. N-NW strong to near gale
force winds are found in the SW Gulf waters, with the strongest
winds occurring offshore Veracruz. Seas of 8 ft or greater prevail
S of 28N and W of 86W, peaking near 12 ft in the offshore waters
of Veracruz. Seas of 4-8 ft are found in the northern and eastern
Gulf waters, N of 28N and E of 86W. South of the stationary front,
gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Florida Straits
to near 24N87W. A few thunderstorms are active along the front
north of the Yucatan Channel. The front will dissipate
overnight. Strong high pressure north of the front will support
fresh to strong winds and rough seas into the middle of the
week. Looking ahead, strong NW winds and building seas will
follow another front expected to move into the northwest Gulf
late Thu. Winds and seas will diminish through late Sat as the
weakening front reaches the southeast Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from the coast of NE
Costa Rica to the coasts of northern Panama and to a 1008 mb low
pressure near 10N77W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is affecting the waters of the SW Caribbean Sea,
primarily S of 14N and W of 77W. A few showers are also seen over
the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, a surface trough is moving across
the Lesser Antilles, along 62W. The increase in moisture is
producing isolated to scattered showers near the trough axis.
Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are evident in the
eastern, central and SW Caribbean, with the strongest winds
occurring in the NE Caribbean, offshore NW Colombia and the
Windward Passage. Seas are 5-7 ft in these waters, with the
highest seas occurring near 11N79W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will
continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds
across the central and northeast Caribbean into mid week. Winds
and seas will diminish across the basin by Thu, except for
occasionally fresh E winds persisting south of Hispaniola.
Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan
Channel by late Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 29N65W, becoming a stationary
front to the NW Bahamas and the Florida Keys. Scattered moderate
convection is present near and to the north of the frontal
boundary. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are
occurring north of the front. Divergence aloft is helping to
induce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the east
of the Lesser Antilles, especially from 07N to 15N and between 47W
and 57W. Meanwhile, a 1031 mb high pressure system is centered
south of the Azores and dominates the remainder of the Atlantic
forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge and
lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to locally
strong easterly winds across most of the central and eastern
Atlantic. Seas are 8-10 ft within these waters.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from 31N59W to 29N65W, then is
stationary to the Florida Straits. This boundary will weaken and
drift north to along 31N by Tue evening before moving eastward
again across the waters north of 28N through Thu. Looking ahead,
a another front will move south into the waters north of 28N late
Fri, and then shift east of the area through Sat.

$$
DELGADO
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