[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210916
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Nov 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from the
Straits of Florida to 1014 mb low pressure near 24N88W. A
persistent surface trough extends from Brownsville, Texas south-
southeast to the Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between
these features and high pressure over the southern United States
continues to support gale force winds near the low as well as
offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Seas have subsided slightly from their
peak, but still are up to 16 to 17 ft. The front and low will
weaken later this morning allowing for winds to diminish below
gale force by sunrise. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Africa to
the Atlantic Ocean near the border of Guinea and Sierra Leone at
09N14W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 05N30W to
06N47W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 03N to 11N between 29W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
ongoing Gale Warning.

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to 1014 MB
low pres near 24N88W. A surface trough extends from near
Brownsville, Texas to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted east of 86W near the
stationary front. Fresh to strong NW winds and 7 to 14 ft seas
prevail elsewhere west of the surface trough. Fresh to strong NE
winds dominate east of the trough and outside the gale area, along
with 7 to 14 ft seas in NE to E swell in the offshore waters.
Seas are 3 to 6 ft from the offshore waters boundary to the coast.

For the forecast, the low will weaken to a trough while the front
weakens while drifting northwest. Associated gales will diminish
by sunrise this morning. Conditions will then improve modestly
through tonight, and more significantly Tue through Wed. The next
cold front may move across the entire basin Thu through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean to
across portions of Panama and across Caribbean coastal sections of
northern Colombia. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted across the SW Caribbean southwest of a line
from 15N83W to 11N75W. Isolated showers are in the far eastern
Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the
Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, the weather is fairly quiet early
this morning. Fresh to strong trades are in the central Caribbean
due to a locally tight pressure gradient between the monsoon
trough and high pressure north of the basin. Seas are 7 to 9 ft
there. Moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are in the
eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades and 3 to 6 ft seas
prevail across the western Caribbean, except to 7 ft in the
Yucatan Channel due to NE swell from the Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will
continue to support fresh trade winds across the E Caribbean and
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through this
morning. NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the
Windward Passage through Tue night. Increasing winds and seas
will arrive from the east across the Tropical N Atlantic waters
through Wed, and spread across the NE Caribbean, including
Atlantic Passages, this afternoon through Wed, as a broad trough
moves westward across the region. Conditions will improve
slightly Thu as the pressure gradient weakens. Looking ahead, a
cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N65W to 28N73W continuing as
stationary through the Central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida.
Fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas are west of the
boundary, highest northeast of the Bahamas and in the Gulfstream.
A ridge extends from the Azores high through 31N50W to 28N70W east
of the front. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are
under the ridge. Mainly moderate trades and 5 to 8 ft in easterly
swell are elsewhere north of 20N and west of 55W.

A pair of surface troughs are in the open Atlantic, one along 60W
south of 23N, and the other from 18N48W to 03N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is between the troughs from 12N to 19N. The
pressure gradient between the Azores high and these troughs is
supporting a large area of fresh to strong winds across the waters
southeast of the Azores ridge and north of 07N, with seas of 7 to
11 ft.

For the forecast, the front in the SW N Atlantic will weaken while
stalling today and tonight, and eventually drift north to along
31N by Tue evening before dragging southeast again across the
waters north of 28N through Wed night, then dissipate by Thu.
A stronger and more progressive cold front may move across the
region by the end of the week into the following weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
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