[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front
extends from the Florida Keys to a low pressure 1014 mb near
23N86W then SW to the western Bay of Campeche near 21N96W. Strong
high pressure building behind the front supports strong to gale
force winds north and west of the front and low pressure. Very
large seas to around 20 ft accompany these winds across the basin.
The low will weaken to a trough while the front remain stalled
across the southern waters through Mon, with associated gales
diminishing by early Mon. Conditions will improve modestly on Mon
and then more significantly Tue through Wed. Please refer to the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough continues mostly confined to the African
continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ extends from 07N19W to 06N32W to
07N46W. A surface trough is located west of the ITCZ, from 14N46W
to 04N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to
17N between 35W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for further details
about an ongoing Gale Warning.

As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Florida Keys
to a low pressure 1014 mb near 23N86W then SW to the western Bay
of Campeche near 21N96W. Strong high pressure building behind the
front supports strong to gale force winds north and west of the
front and low pressure. Very large seas to around 20 ft accompany
these winds across the basin. Aside from the winds and seas
hazards in the gulf, scattered showers are along the western
Florida coastal waters while scattered showers and tstms are
ongoing just to the west of the Florida Keys to 85W and S of 26N.

For the forecast, the low will weaken to a trough while the front
remain stalled across the southern waters through Mon, with associated
gales diminishing by early Mon. Conditions will improve modestly
on Mon and then more significantly Tue through Wed. The next cold
front will move across the entire basin Thu through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered heavy showers and tstms prevail across the Nicaragua,
Costa Rica and NW Colombia offshore waters being supported by
upper level divergence and the eastern extension of the E Pacific
monsoon trough. With the proximity of a frontal boundary in the SE
Gulf of Mexico, the pressure gradient in the NW Caribbean remains
weak, thus leading to the continuation of gentle to moderate trade
winds with seas of 3-5 ft. A strong ridge in the central Atlantic
along with surface high pressure building behind a pair of fronts
affecting the northern Bahamas, are maintaining fresh winds in the
E Caribbean and fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean.
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in the E basin and 8-10 ft in the
central and portions of the SW basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will
continue to support fresh trade winds across the E Caribbean and
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through early
Mon. NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Windward
Passage through Tue night. Increasing winds and seas will arrive
from the east across the Tropical N Atlantic waters tonight
through Wed, and spread across the NE Caribbean, including
Atlantic Passages, Mon afternoon through Wed, as a broad trough
moves westward across the region. Conditions will improve slightly
Thu as the pressure gradient weakens. Looking ahead, a cold front
is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from 31N65W across the
northern Bahamas to the Florida Keys. A new cold front has entered
the waters off NE Florida and extends from 31N72W to Melbourne,
Florida. Scattered showers are behind this new cold front. Fresh
to strong NE winds are behind these two frontal boundaries along
with seas in the 5-8 ft. Ahead of the stationary front and S of
24N esterly winds are mainly fresh with locally strong winds just
N of Hispaniola while seas are in the 7-8 ft range. The remaining
central and eastern subtropical Atlantic are under the influence
of the Azores high, which continues to support mainly fresh to
locally strong winds and seas in the 8-10 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will drift N
tonight and Mon. The new cold front will move southeast and merge
with the old front along about 29N Mon, then will stall from south
of Bermuda to central Florida Mon night. This boundary will then
weaken and drift north to along 31N by Tue evening before dragging
SE again across the waters N of 28N through Wed night, then
dissipate by Thu.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net