[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on the 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the Bahamas near 25N77W,
through the Straits of Florida, to a 1012 mb low pressure center
that is near 26N93.5W. A cold front continues from the 1012 mb
low pressure center, to 19N96W in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Gale-force N to NE winds, NW to N winds within 120 nm of
Mexico, and sea heights that range from 12 feet to 18 feet in NE
to E swell, are from 22N to 29N between 90W and 98W. Expect
elsewhere: from 21N to 30N between 85W and 97W, including within
60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico, NE winds ranging from
20 knots to 30 knots, and NW to N winds within 120 nm of Mexico,
and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 11 feet.  Expect from
23N to 25N between 81W and 84W, including in the Straits of
Florida: NE to E winds that range from 20 knots to 25 knots, and
sea heights reaching 8 feet. Expect these conditions during the
next 24 hours or so. Please, refer to the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

...The Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Winds and Rough Seas...

A tight surface pressure gradient, that exists between a strong
1033 mb Azores high pressure center, and comparatively lower
surface pressures in NW Africa, are causing the wind speeds to
increase and the sea heights to build. The METEO FRANCE forecast
consists of: gale-force winds in the AGADIR Marine Zone, until
20/1200 UTC. Please, read the High Seas Warning and Forecast
issued by Meteo- France at the following website:
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W, to
05N20W and 04N40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 10N southward from 40W eastward. A first surface
trough is along 43W/45W from 03N to 16N. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm on either side of
the surface trough. A second surface trough is along 30N48W
24N50W 17N53W 10N55W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is within 400 nm to the east of the second surface trough
from 15N to 21N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 10N to 22N between 30W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about an
ongoing Gale-Force Wind
Warning that is covering the western Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 310 nm of the 1012 mb low pressure center in the NE
quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from the
stationary front southward.

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near
24N81W, to 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 26N93.5W. A
cold front extends from the 1012 mb low pressure center, to the
SW Gulf of Mexico near 19N96W. These features are combining with
high pressure that is to the north of the area in order to
support fresh to strong winds across much of the Gulf west of
85W. The low will weaken to a trough while the front stalls
across the southern waters through Monday. The pressure gradient
will strengthen the winds, and produce strong to gale force
winds in much of the Gulf of Mexico this evening through Sun
night, with large seas to near 20 ft. The conditions will
improve modestly on Monday, and then more significantly from
Tuesday through Wednesday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes through 09N75W in coastal Colombia,
southwestward, through the border of Panama and Colombia,
through the southern sections of Panama between 80W and 81W,
into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 15N southward from 75W
westward.

A steady surface ridge is to the north of the area. The trade
winds in most of the basin are fresh with locally strong in the
north central and south central Caribbean Sea, with the sea
heights ranging from 5 feet to 8 feet. A comparatively weaker
surface pressure gradient in the NW corner supports gentle to
moderate trade winds, and sea heights that are reaching 5 feet.
The current surface pressure gradient will continue to support
fresh trade winds in the E Caribbean Sea, and fresh to strong
winds in the central Caribbean Sea through early Monday.
Increasing wind speeds and sea heights will impact the Tropical
N Atlantic Ocean from Sunday night through Wednesday. These
conditions will cover the NE Caribbean Sea, including in the
Atlantic Ocean Passages, from Monday
through Wednesday, as a broad trough moves westward through the
Caribbean Sea.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Gale-Force Wind Warning for the areas of the METEO-FRANCE High
Seas Forecast.

A stationary front extends from just south of Bermuda, to the
Central Bahamas, and beyond the Straits of Florida. The wind
speeds that are in the the SW Atlantic Ocean are moderate to
fresh from 27N southward. The exceptions are for locally strong
winds that are from Hispaniola northward, and in the approaches
of the Windward Passage. The sea heights in this part of the
Atlantic Ocean ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet. The wind speeds
that are in the subtropical waters from 45W eastward are from
the NE to E, and they range from 20 knots to 30 knots. Rough
seas range from 8 feet to 11 feet.

A stationary front extends from just south of Bermuda across the
Central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. The front will weaken
and begin to drift N tonight. Tonight into early Sun, another
cold front will enter the waters off NE Florida, and move
southeast before stalling from south of Bermuda
to extreme S Florida Mon. This boundary will then weaken and
drift north to along 31N by Tue evening before dragging SE again
across the waters N of 28N through Wed night.

$$
mt/jl
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