[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France is forecasting near-gale
to gale winds in the AGADIR and TARFAYA Marine Zones as strong
high pressure builds behind an approaching cold front. Gales began
this afternoon in Agadir and earlier this evening in Tarfaya. Both
gale events are forecast to continue through at least 19/12Z in
both zones. Seas will range 10-14 ft in the highest winds, with a
NW to N swell direction. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by Meteo-France at website:
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico
is expected to drift north through the weekend. The gradient
between this low pressure and high pressure across the south-
central U.S. will produce strong to gale force winds across much
of the Gulf of Mexico beginning 20/2100 UTC. Seas will build to
12-16 ft in highest winds. Conditions should gradually improve
early next week. For more information, please see the Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and the
High Seas Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 06N15W to 05N31W and continues west of a surface
trough from 06N36W to 07N48W. The surface trough is from 04N33W
to 11N33W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N
between 14W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a new
GALE WARNING for gale force winds beginning 20/2100 UTC.

At 2100 UTC, a sharp surface trough extends from the Yucatan
Peninsula near 19.5N91W to 1017 mb low pres near 21N95W to extreme
S Texas. High pressure to the north of the area is supporting
strong winds to the north of the trough to 28N, and to the W of
88W all the way to the E Mexican coast. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft
in this region. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are also in the
Florida Straits and the Yucatan channel due to the pressure
gradient between the ridge across most of the gulf and lower
pressure associated with a frontal boundary in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the low and trough will drift N over the
weekend. The pressure gradient between this low pres and new high
pres across the south-central U.S. will strengthen the winds and
produce strong to gale force winds across much of the Gulf of
Mexico Sat afternoon through Sun night. Conditions will improve
modestly on Mon and then significantly Tue through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line, remnants of a stationary front are in the NW
Caribbean generating numerous heavy showers from the Gulf of
Honduras to the coastal waters of central and western Cuba.
Scattered showers are in the SW Caribbean associated with a low
pressure off the coast of central Panama, which is embedded in
the E Pacific extension of the monsoon trough. With surface
ridging being in place N of the area in both the SW N Atlantic
waters and the central Atlantic, trade winds remain moderate to
fresh basin-wide with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in
the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will
support moderate to fresh trade winds during the next several
days, pulsing to strong at night in the central Caribbean this
weekend. A shear line across the NW Caribbean will gradually
dissipate through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail
across the Yucatan Channel through early Sat, while seas build
across the far NW Caribbean through tonight. Increasing winds and
seas will impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters Sun night through
Wed, and across the NE Caribbean, including Atlantic Passages, Mon
afternoon through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
an East Atlantic Gale Warning.

As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from 31N65W across the
Central Bahamas to N central Cuba with showers affecting the
Bahamas and adjacent NE offshore waters. Surface ridging is across
the remainder central and eastern Atlantic subtropical waters with
a cold front extending from NW Africa across the Canary Islands to
30N30W. Moderate to fresh E winds are S of 27N in the SW and
central Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE wind will prevail from the
western Bahamas through the Straits of Florida, to the N of the
front, through tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of
the front. Early Sun, another cold front will enter the waters of
NE Florida, and move SE before stalling from S of Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida late Mon. This boundary will then weaken and
drift N to along 31N early Wed before moving SE again across the
far NW waters.

$$
Ramos
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