[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France is forecasting near-gale
to gale winds in the AGADIR and TARFAYA Marine Zones as strong
high pressure builds behind an approaching cold front. Gales are
forecast to begin by 18/18Z in Agadir and by 18/21Z in Tarfaya, to
at least 19/12Z in both zones. Seas will range 10-14 ft in the highest
winds, with a NW to N swell direction. Please read the HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website:
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico
is expected to drift north through the weekend. The gradient
between this low pressure and high pressure across the south-
central U.S. will produce strong to gale force winds across much
of the Gulf of Mexico beginning 20/2100 UTC. Seas will build to
12-16 ft in highest winds. Conditions should gradually improve
early next week. For more information, please see the Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and the
High Seas Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 05N15W to 07N33W and continues west of a surface
trough from 07N37W to 08N52W. The surface trough is from
05N35W to 11N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted on
either side of the ITCZ between 01N and 12N from 15W to 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a new
GALE WARNING for gale force winds beginning 20/2100 UTC.

At 1500 UTC, a stationary front extends from just south of the
Yucatan Channel across the northern Yucatan Peninsula to 1017 mb
low pressure in the SW Gulf near 21N93W. A trough extends from
the low to the Mexico-Texas border. Scattered showers and tstorms
are noted east of the trough to 90W and north of the frontal
boundary to 23N.

Fresh to strong NW winds exist west of 93W and south of 23N to
the coast of Mexico, while fresh to strong NE winds are present
across the Gulf waters from 22N to 26N, including the Yucatan
Channel. Seas are 8-14 ft within these areas of fresh to strong
winds, with peak seas near 23N94W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
N-NE winds are present along with 4-7 ft seas, except 2-4 ft in
the far NE Gulf coastal waters.

For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken to a shearline
this evening. Strong winds prevail N of the front to 26N and W of
87W, where seas remain in excess of 12 ft, while strong winds
persist across the far SW Gulf from 18N to 24N. The low will drift
N over the weekend. The gradient between this low pres and high
pres across the south-central U.S. will produce strong to gale
force winds across much of the Gulf of Mexico late Sat through Sun
night. Conditions should gradually improve early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from western Cuba across Isla de la
Juventud to north of Cozumel, Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are
north of the boundary, including within the Yucatan Channel,
with seas of 6-9 ft in N swell spilling through from the Gulf of
Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed along the coast of Honduras.
Scattered moderate convection, associated with the trough and the
stationary front, is in the NW Caribbean from the coast of
Honduras north to 21N between 82W and 87W. The eastern end of the
East Pacific monsoon trough along with 1009 mb low near central
Panama are triggering scattered moderate convection in the SW
Gulf, from 11N to 13N between 76W and 84W. Moderate to fresh
trades dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are 5-7 ft
locally 8 ft in the central Caribbean, 3-5 ft between Cuba and
Jamaica, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in
the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will
support moderate to fresh trade winds during the next several
days, pulsing to strong in the central Caribbean this weekend. The
stationary front across the Yucatan Channel will gradually
dissipate through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail
across the Yucatan Channel through early Sat, while seas build
across the far NW Caribbean through Fri night. Increasing winds
and seas will impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters Sun night
through Mon, and NE Caribbean, including Atlantic Passages, Mon
afternoon through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
an East Atlantic Gale Warning.

A stationary front extends from just SE of Bermuda to across the
Central Bahamas to N central Cuba along 80W. Scattered showers
are noted within 50 nm on either side of the front between 70W and
75W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas are west of the
front, except locally fresh from the central Bahamas through the
Straits of Florida. Light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas are
elsewhere north of 26N and west of 55W, under a ridge extending
from a 1032 mb Azores High north of the area. Moderate to fresh
trades and 5-7 ft seas are south of 26N and west of 55W. A weak
trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 31N44W to 22N44W.
Scattered showers are noted in the central tropical Atlantic from
13N to 19N between 33W and 41W. The Azores high is supporting
moderate to fresh trades east of 40W, with mainly moderate trades
between 40W and 55W. Seas are 8-10 ft in N swell north of 18N east
of 40W. Elsewhere in open waters seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, Fresh NE winds will prevail from
the western Bahamas through the Straits of Florida through
tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Over
the weekend, another cold front will enter the waters east of
Florida, bringing fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it. The
front may stall out across the central portion early next week,
eventually retreating northward.

$$
Nepaul/Mahoney
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net