[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Nov 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...
A surface ridge extends southward from a strong 1028 mb high over
southern Texas along the east coast of Mexico. Meanwhile, a 1017
mb low has formed northeast of Vera Cruz near 21N95W. Tight
gradient between these two features will sustain strong to gale
northerly winds across the western Bay of Campeche through early
Fri morning. Seas are peaking at 12 to 15 ft at the western Bay of
Campeche, and 10 to 13 ft at the west-central Gulf. Both winds
and seas should gradually decrease late Fri morning. Please read
the HIGH SEAS FORECAST at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

GALE WINDS AT AGADIR MARINE ZONE...
Meteo-France is forecasting near-gale to gale winds near Madeira
Island in the east-central Atlantic by 18/18Z. Refer to website:
http://gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.2105.
172105434491.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over the African continent based on the
latest analysis. An ITCZ extends west-northwestward from west of
southern Liberia at 04N15W across 08N35W to north of French Guiana
at 09N52W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted up to 200 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 18W and
40W. Scattered showers are seen up to 120 nm along either side of
the rest of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough along with an
embedded 1008 mb low near central Panama are triggering scattered
heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near the coast of Panama
and northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warning.

A cold front extends west-southwestward from the Florida Straits
across northwestern Cuba and the Yucatan Channel/Peninsula, then
continues westward as a stationary front over the eastern Bay of
Campeche to a 1017 mb low near 21N95W. Widely scattered showers
are occurring up to 50 nm along either side of the cold front.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and up
to 80 nm north of the stationary front, and near the low.
Interaction between cold, denser air from the Gulf States and
warmer, moist air in the Gulf is creating extensive mid to high-
level cloudiness over the northern Gulf.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE winds and seas
of 4 to 8 ft are present across the northwestern, north-central
and central Gulf. Moderate NNE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are
found at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE winds and
seas at 4 to 7 ft exist at the southeastern Gulf, including the
Florida Straits. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds with 8 to 11 ft
seas are evident at the south-central Gulf, including the Yucatan
Channel. Moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail at
the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the cold front will stall across the Yucatan
Channel this evening. The stationary front will become a sharp
surface trough connected to the low on Fri. Gale-force NW winds
will continue within about 120 nm of the Mexican coast near
Veracruz through tonight while strong winds prevail elsewhere over
the southwestern Gulf, and fresh to strong in the central Gulf.
The surface trough will extend from the southwestern Gulf to the
northwestern Gulf over the weekend while low pres lingers along
it. The gradient between this low pres and high pres across the
south-central U.S. will produce strong to gale force winds again
across much of the Gulf of Mexico late Sat through Sun night.
Conditions should gradually improve early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the northwestern and west-central basin,
including the Gulf of Honduras. Another surface trough is causing
isolated thunderstorms near Haiti. Otherwise, a NE to ENE trade-
wind regime continues for most of the basin. Moderate with
locally fresh ENE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are seen for the
eastern and central basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 7
ft seas are present at the northwestern basin. Moderate ENE winds
and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found at the west-central basin. Gentle
to moderate monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail near
Panama.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in
the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the southwestern
Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds during the
next several days, pulsing to strong in the central Caribbean this
weekend. A cold front near the Yucatan Channel will stall through
Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail behind the front
across the Yucatan Channel through early Sat, while seas build
across the far northwestern Caribbean through Fri night.
Increasing winds and seas may impact the northeastern Caribbean
including Atlantic Passages early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on gales being
forecast by Meteo-France in the north-central Atlantic.

A cold front stretches southwestward from near Bermuda across
31N67W and the central Bahamas through western Cuba. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near and up
to 100 nm southeast of the front. A robust upper-level trough
reaches northeastward from a low near 23N50W to beyond 31N at 41W.
Scattered moderate convection are flaring up just east of the
features from 17N to 22N between 45W and 51W, and north of 22N
between 33W and 41W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A 1030 mb Azores High is sustaining gentle to moderate easterly
winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft in moderate northerly swell north of
20N between the northwestern African coast and 55W. To the west,
light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 20N
between 55W and the cold front. Behind the cold front, gentle to
moderate N to ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident. Farther
southeast, gentle to moderate NNE to ENE trades and seas of 6 to 7
ft exist from 08N to 20N between the central African coast and
Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 5
to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward and
stall from near Bermuda to the northwest Bahamas to northwestern
Cuba later tonight. Fresh N winds will blow from the western
Bahamas across the Straits of Florida through the end of the
week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Over the
weekend, another cold front will enter the waters east of Florida,
bringing fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it. The front may
stall from just south of Bermuda to the northwestern Bahamas
early next week, eventually retreating northward.

$$

Chan
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