[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from South Florida across the SE Gulf of
Mexico into the central Bay of Campeche. The front will move just
SE of the basin by this evening. Strong to gale force northerly
winds prevail within about 120 nm of the Mexican coast to the W of
the front. Strong high pressure building over Texas will tightening
the pressure gradient across the Gulf through Fri. As a result,
expect increasing winds and building seas across most of the basin,
with gale force winds over the SW Gulf through early Fri. A trough
or low pressure is forecast to develop over the western Gulf during
the upcoming weekend. This pattern could bring gale conditions
over most of the western Gulf, and strong to near gale force winds
over the eastern and south-central Gulf late Sat through Sun night.

Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone near
07N13W, and continues to 07N16W. The ITCZ extends 07N16W to 09N32W
to 06N45W to 10N55W. A surface trough is within the ITCZ and runs
from 12N32W to 05N36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 15W AND 45W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough continues to
enhance convection across the Atlantic offshore waters of Panama,
mainly S of 11N between 76W and 82W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico. Winds
are forecast to diminish below gale force by early Fri afternoon.
However, weather conditions will deteriorate again across the
Gulf waters during the upcoming weekend as a trough or low pressure
develops. Please read the Special Features section above for details.
Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong northerly winds
over the central Gulf. Seas are 8 to 11 ft within the area of gale
force winds in the SW Gulf, and 8 to 10 ft over the west-central
Gulf. Elsewhere, seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. Abundant cloudiness,
with possible showers, is noted over most of the Gulf region. Some
shower and thunderstorm activity is near the southern end of the
front over SE Mexico.

For the forecast, please see the Special Features section.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of moderate
to locally fresh trade winds across the east and central Caribbean,
with fresh to strong trades near the coast of Colombia. Mainly
fresh NE winds are seen across the Windward Passage. Seas are 5
to 8 ft over the central Caribbean, 4 to 6 across the eastern
part of the basin, and 3 to 5 ft over the NW Caribbean. A surface
trough is analyzed along 78W. Scattered showers are near the
trough axis. An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is
between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Elsewhere, shallow moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow will move across the region
producing isolated to scatered passing showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in
the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will
support moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next
several days. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan
Channel late today, and stall across the NW Caribbean Fri. Fresh
to strong NE winds will prevail behind the front across the
Yucatan Channel, while seas build across the far NW Caribbean
through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N76W and continues
SW to South Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are just
ahead of the front and just N of the NW Bahamas. A recent ASCAT
pass show moderate to fresh NW winds in the wake of the front with
seas of 4 to 6 ft based on buoy observations. The remainder of the
Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1023 mb high
pressure located near 32N39W. The pressure gradient between the
high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds over much of the east and
central tropical Atlantic. Northerly swell continues to propagate
across most of forecast waters E of 55W with seas of 7 to 10 ft
based on altimeter data. Seas have increased just E of the Madeira
and Canary Islands where an altimeter pass indicates seas of 10 to
14 ft. An upper-level trough extending over the east-central
Atlantic continues to generate some shower activity.

For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will
move SE and stall from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas to the
Straits of Florida tonight. Fresh N winds will briefly follow the
front through early this morning. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. Over the weekend, another cold front will enter
the NE Florida waters, bringing fresh to strong northerly winds
behind it.

$$
GR
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