[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front currently across the
northwestern Gulf will sink southeastward through Wed night. It
is expected to bring near-gale to gale-force northerly winds at
the west-central and southwestern Gulf by late Tue afternoon.
Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and OFFSHORE FORECAST at
the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea
border through 09N18W to 07N22W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen from 03N to 11N between Guinea/Sierra
Leone/Liberia coast and 22W. An ITCZ continues from 07N22W across
07N30W to 10N40W, and then from 10N50W to just southeast of
Trinidad and Tobago. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03N to 09N between 22W and 27W, and up to 60 nm along either side
of the rest of the ITCZ segments.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Panama and
northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on a Gale Warning.

A warm front extends westward from the Florida Panhandle across
the Louisiana coastline to a 1009 mb low near the Louisiana-Texas
border, then turns southwestward as a cold front to just south of
the Texas-Mexico border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring near the warm front but east of the cold front across
the north-central Gulf, including waters near New Orleans.
Scattered showers are seen near and up to 90 nm southeast of the
cold front. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale SE to SW to NW
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident across the northwest and
north-central Gulf.

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from Florida Big Bend Area
to south of Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft exist for the west-central
and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present for the
eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from SE Louisiana to
near Tampico, Mexico by Tue morning, and from N Florida near
29N82W to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front tonight through
early Tue over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will follow the front with a small area of gale
force winds near Veracruz, Mexico Tue afternoon into Tue night. By
Wed, strong high pressure will build over Texas, tightening the
pressure gradient across the Gulf region. As a result, expect
increasing winds and building seas across the basin, with gale
force winds over the over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz
area, from late Wed through Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica, southern Haiti, Puerto Rico
and the Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate to fresh
easterly trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft are found at the eastern
basin. Gentle to moderate easterly trades with 3 to 4 ft seas are
evident at the southwestern and central basin. Mainly gentle E to
ESE trades and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the northwestern
basin.

For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure
in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean
will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next
several days. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan
Channel late Thu, and move over the NW Caribbean Thu night. Fresh
NE winds and building seas will follow the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front stretches westward from southwest of Bermuda
across 31N69W to near St. Augustine, Florida then continues as a
warm front over northern Florida. Scattered moderate convection is
evident up to 90 nm north and 50 nm south of the stationary front.
A surface trough is east of the Bahamas near 25N67W. Coupling with
an upper-level trough in the vicinity, scattered moderate
convection is flaring up north of 22N between 60W and 67W. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in
the Atlantic Basin.

A 1029 mb Mid-Atlantic High is sustaining gentle to moderate NE
to SE winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in northerly swell north of 24N
between the northwest African coast 65W. To the west, gentle to
moderate ENE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in NE swell are found
north of 20N between 65W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Farther
south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to ENE trades and
seas at 6 to 10 ft in northerly swell are seen from 06N to
20N/24N between the central African coast and the Lesser Antilles.
Light to gentle E to SSE winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in southerly
swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and moderate
to rough seas follow the stationary front forecast to weaken
through Tue. The next cold front will move off northeast Florida
early Wed, and reach from 31N73W to central Cuba by Thu morning.
Fresh NW winds will briefly follow the front Thu before weakening
as high pressure builds through Fri.

$$

Chan
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