[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Nov 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through Guinea Bissau
near 12N16W, then continues SW to near 09N18W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N18W to 07N35W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. A
surface trough is within the ITCZ and runs from 11N35.5W to
05N36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 06N-09N between 18W-27W, and from 05N-10N between 30W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Straits of Florida to 22N89W where
it becomes stationary to the central Bay of Campeche. High
pressure over the SE of United States dominates the waters N of
the front. Mainly low clouds with possible showers are noted on
satellite imagery over the NW Gulf in a SE wind flow. Recent
scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh NE-E winds N of the
front with seas of 4-7 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted S of
the front with seas generally in the 3 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary currently across the
southern Gulf will lift northward today ahead of the next cold
front forecast to enter the NW Gulf this evening. The new cold
front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico by Tue
morning, and from N Florida near 29N82W to the central Bay of
Campeche by Wed morning. Fresh to strong winds will follow the
front. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will
bring gale force winds and building seas near the Veracruz area
Wed morning through likely Thu night. At the same time, the high
expanding pressure will push the front SE of the Gulf region by
Thu evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected across
most of the Gulf waters Wed night into Thu morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed across the Mona Passage into the
eastern Caribbean. Some shower activity is observed E of the
trough axis just N of Puerto Rico. Scatterometer data show the
wind shift associated with the trough. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are affecting the SW Caribbean, particularly S of
15N and W 80W. Elsewhere, low-topped trade wind showers are
noted. A weak pressure gradient across the region supports gentle
to moderate trade winds and seas of 3-5 ft, with the exception of
1-3 ft over the NW Caribbean, and near Costa Rica and Panama
offshore waters.

For the forecast, weak pressure gradient across the basin will
continue to support gentle to moderate trade winds during the
next several days. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan
Channel on Thu, and move over the NW Caribbean Thu and Thu night.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the
front. Seas of 8-10 ft are expected in the Yucatan Channel by Thu
evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N71W to
the Straits of Florida. A band of showers and thunderstorms is
ahead of the front but mainly N of 25N. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds are noted in the wake of the front based on recent satellite
derived wind data. Seas are 4-6 ft within these winds. Farther
east, another band of showers and thunderstorms is noted around
the western periphery of a 1027 mb high pressure located near
32N44W. A surface trough is on the W side of this convective
activity and extends from 24N65W into the Mona Passage. An area of
fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 8 ft is seen N of 29N
between 59W and 63W. These marine conditions are also found on
the western periphery of the aforementioned high pressure. A
weakening cold front crosses the Madeira Islands, and enters the
forecast area near 31N19W then continues SW to near 26N27W to
25N40W. A broken band of mainly low clouds with isolated showers
is related to the front.

The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures
in the deep tropics supports fresh to strong easterly winds over
much of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Northerly swell
dominates most of forecast waters E of 55W with seas of 8-10 ft
based on altimeter data.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and building
seas will affect the N waters today with the above mentioned front
reaching the NE part of the forecast area by tonight. The next
cold front will move off NE Florida on Wed, and reach from 31N74W
to the Straits of Florida by Thu morning, and from 31N67W to
central Cuba by Thu night. fresh NW to N winds will briefly follow
the front on Thu morning. High pressure will build in the wake of
the front.

$$
GR
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