[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to
07N35W to 04N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 13N
between 15W and 41W. Isolated moderate convection is from 41W and
58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Naples, Florida SW to
23N88W where it stalls and continues to the central Bay of
Campeche near 18N93W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow the
front along with 5-7 ft seas, except in the Veracruz offshore
waters where locally strong winds and seas of 8-9 ft prevail.
The presence of dry air in the middle levels is inhibiting the
development of deep convection in the vicinity of the front and
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, The front will weaken and stall by early Mon as
conditions briefly improve. The next cold front is forecast to
move into the NW Gulf Monday evening and reach from the Florida
Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Tue night. Fresh to strong N winds
will follow the front with a small area of gale force winds
possible near Veracruz Tue night. This front will stall across the
Gulf as strong high pressure builds over Texas late Wed. As a
result, the gradient will tighten, further increasing winds and
building seas through the majority of the basin by Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are across the W Caribbean W of
75W and ahead of a cold front across the SE Gulf of Mexico. Seas
in this region of the basin are in the 1-3 ft. Gentle to moderate
trade winds are across the remainder central and eastern Caribbean
to near 65W where a surface trough axis stretches just E of Puerto
Rico. A tighter pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical
ridge and lower pressure associated with the trough support mainly
fresh trade winds across the Lesser Antilles and the Atlantic
tropical waters just E of the Antilles where seas are 8-9 ft in N
to NE swell.

For the forecast, the gradient between a weak high pressure ridge
NE of the Bahamas and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will
continue to support moderate trade winds across the central
Caribbean through Mon. By Tue, the surface trough will weaken
while building high pressure in the subtropical Atlantic gradually
tightens the gradient, freshening winds across the basin through
the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front stretches across the western
Atlantic from 31N75W to West Palm Beach, Florida. Isolated showers
are in the immediate vicinity of the front while scattered
showers are occuring ahead of the front and across the northern
and central Bahamas due to a pre-frontal trough that stretches
from 31N72W SW to Andros Island.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh NE winds behind the cold front
will gradually progress SE with the front, which is forecast to
reach from 31N71W to near Palm Beach, Florida by early Mon before
dissipating through the day. The gradient between a surface
trough along 66W and subtropical high pressure in the central
Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh E-SE winds
east of 65W before high pressure builds in Monday night. The next
front moves into the subtropical Atlantic by late Wed, bringing
similar conditions to the NE Florida waters.

$$
Ramos
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