[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Nov 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent,
reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 05N41W to the
coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 04N to 15N and west of 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to south of
Veracruz, Mexico. Overnight scatterometer indicated gale force
winds near Veracruz. These winds have dropped below gale force but
continue to be strong. Seas range 8 to 13 ft across the SW Gulf.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds also prevail across the northern and
central Gulf behind the front. Ahead of the cold front, the
weather conditions are fairly tranquil under a weak high pressure
regime. Light to gentle northerly winds and seas of 1-4 ft
prevail. Isolated thunderstorms are noted off the Tampa Bay coast.

For the forecast, the cold front will extend from southwest
Florida to central Bay of Campeche this evening and dissipate by
Mon. Strong N winds and rough seas will follow the front in the
western Bay of Campeche through this evening. Conditions are
expected to improve across the Gulf by tonight. The next cold
front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf Tue morning and reach
from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Tue night. Fresh
to strong N winds will follow the front with possible gale
conditions near Veracruz on Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Synoptic observations indicate that a weak surface trough extends
from NW Colombia to south of Jamaica. Plenty of tropical moisture
and divergence aloft support scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection within 120 nm on both sides of the trough axis.
Meanwhile, in the northeast corner of the Caribbean Sea an
approaching surface trough is sustaining some shower activity that
is affecting some of the Leeward Islands. The rest of the basin
is under mainly tranquil weather conditions. Due to the surface
trough, trades across the eastern Caribbean are gentle to
moderate. Moderate easterly winds are noted in the central
Caribbean with light to gentle winds in the NW basin. Seas range
2-4 ft.

For the forecast, the surface trough near the Lesser Antilles
will move westward across the E Caribbean today through Mon
morning. This will briefly weaken the trade wind flow across the
basin. High pressure will build into the region as the trough
dissipates along 70W Mon night through Tue, and freshen the trade
winds across the entire basin through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper level trough in the central Atlantic supports a
surface trough that extends from 30N61W to 19N67W. Divergence
aloft and tropical moisture being pulled northward are generating
a large area of showers and thunderstorms, from 21N to 30N and
between 53W and 63W. A bit farther south, another surface trough
extends from 21N62W to 14N62W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 17N to 21W and between 51W and
62W.

A cold front extends across the eastern and central Atlantic from
31N19W to 19N31W, where it becomes a dissipating cold front to
18N47W to 22N55W. An expansive 1027 mb high pressure system is
positioned between Bermuda and the Azores near 32N45W. The
pressure gradient due to lower pressures associated with the
aforementioned frontal boundary and deep tropics sustain moderate
to locally strong easterly winds over most of the central and
eastern Atlantic. Overnight scatterometer satellite pass indicate
that these winds are occurring north of the ITCZ to about 31N and
between 25W and 65W. Some of the strongest winds were found east
of the surface trough near the Leeward Islands. Seas are 6-10 ft
in the central and eastern Atlantic, with the highest seas
occurring near 20N45W. The vast northerly swell region was
captured by an altimeter satellite pass from overnight, with seas
near 11 ft near 23N50W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong E winds and
high seas persist N 18N and E of 60W along a weakening frontal
boundary that extends roughly along 18N. The fresh winds will
diminish through Mon with seas gradually subsiding through mid-
week. A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida
early this morning with moderate to locally fresh winds and
moderate seas behind it. The front will dissipate by Mon. The next
front will likely move off the NE Florida coast by Wed morning.

$$
AReinhart
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