[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Nov 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: At 1500 UTC, a cold front stretches
from the coastal border of Mississippi and Alabama to Tampico,
Mexico. Strong N winds continue in the lee the front with
frequent gusts to gale force continuing off the South Texas
coast. Gusts to gale force will end by mid-afternoon. Farther
south, sustained gales have begun in the waters offshore Northern
Veracruz near Tampico. Seas are 6-8 ft behind the front north of
26N, and 8-12 ft behind the front south of 26N with highest seas
in gales. The gales will shift southward with the cold front
before diminishing overnight. Conditions across the Gulf will
improve through Sun night. Please read the latest the High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave is in the central Caribbean along 72W,
from 16N southward through Lago de Maracaibo, moving west at
around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are tstorms are within 60 nm
of the coast of Venezuela. This tropical wave is on course to
dissipate in the western Caribbean within the next couple of
days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to the coast of
French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered showers are within 150nm of
the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING in the lee of a cold front.

Ahead of the cold front, seas are 2-4 ft gentle to moderate SW
winds. A few showers are off the coast of SE Louisiana.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will extend from
the western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz this evening, and
then from southwest Florida to central Bay of Campeche by Sun
evening. Gale conditions across the upper Mexican waters this
morning will shift southward to offshore of Cabo Rojo, Mexico
later this afternoon then diminish by this evening. Brief gales
are expected offshore of Veracruz this evening. Conditions across
the Gulf are expected to improve by Sun night before the next cold
front moves into the NW Gulf Mon night. This next front is
expected to reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of
Campeche Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

1010 mb Colombian Low is centered inland over NW Venezuela, with a
weak trough extending north into the south central Caribbean.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N east of 78W.
Scattered showers are near the surface trough. Elsewhere, a
diffuse pressure gradient supports gentle to locally moderate
trades across the basin. Seas are 3-5 ft in the eastern and
central Caribbean, and 1-3 ft in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will sink
southeastward and gradually build across the basin today. A
surface trough will move westward across the E Caribbean tonight
through Mon morning. This will briefly weaken the trade wind flow
across the basin. High pressure will build into the region as the
trough dissipates along 70W Mon night through Tue, and freshen the
trade winds across the entire basin through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive cold front is draped across the eastern and central
Atlantic. The front enters the discussion waters near 31N21W, and
continues to 20N39W to 26N54W. Fresh to locally strong N to NE
winds were detected in the lee of the front by scatterometer this
morning. Well north of the front, winds diminish to moderate
speeds with an easterly direction due to 1029 mb high pressure
centered near 33N48W. Seas 8 ft or greater are analyzed north of a
line from 31N65W to 14N50W to 31N18W. Seas 12 ft or greater are
from 25N to 30N between 26W and 31W with peak seas of 13 ft. These
seas are primarily in N swell, with mixed N and E swell noted
west of 54W within the above described area of seas 8 ft or
greater. Scattered moderate convection associated with a surface
trough is from 13N to 18N between 50W and 58W. Scattered showers
associated with another surface trough are from 23N to 26W between
38W and 41W. South of 20N, trades are moderate to fresh with 4-7
ft seas. In the waters W of 65W, winds are light to gentle with
4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong winds along the frontal
boundary will diminish today with seas gradually subsiding
through early next week. Moderate northerly swell will impact the
waters E of 70W through tonight before fading Sun. A cold front
will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun with
moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. The
front will weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to
central Florida by Mon night. The next front will likely move off
the NE Florida coast by mid- week.

$$
Mahoney
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