[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 102345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 29.4N 83.2W at 10/2100
UTC or 80 nm SE of Tallahassee Florida moving NW at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The rainbands of Nicole
continue to generate scattered heavy showers across the NE Gulf of
Mexico where peak seas are 12 ft. On the forecast track, the
center of Nicole will move along the coast of the Florida Big Bend
region for the next several hours before moving across the
eastern Florida Panhandle. After that, Nicole should move
northward over Georgia later tonight, and then move through the
southeastern United States on Friday. Little change in strength
is expected this evening while the center moves along the coast of
the Florida Big Bend. Nicole is expected to weaken to a depression
over Georgia tonight, and then it is expected to dissipate as it
merges with a frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic United States
by Friday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well
as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Just to the west of the tropical
storm force winds of Nicole, winds off the extreme Florida
Panhandle coast can expect strong winds with frequent gusts to
gale force. These winds are expected to continue until early Fri
morning. Please read the latest the High Seas Forecast issued by
NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml as well as the local
NWS Forecast offices Tallahassee, FL and Mobile, AL for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 63W, from 07N to 19N, moving west at
around 5 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed
throughout the eastern Caribbean near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 07N43W,
where the convergent flow is interrupted by a surface trough. The
ITCZ resumes from 08N54W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 03N to 10N, between 17W and 37W. Scattered
moderate convection is also observed from 07N to 13N, between 54W
and 61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
Storm Nicole.

Tropical Storm Nicole near 29.4N 83.2W 990 mb at 4 PM EST moving
NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Strong to
near gale force winds in the SW semicircle of Nicole are affecting
the NE Gulf of Mexico offshore waters where seas are in the 8 to
12 ft range. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere in the
western half of the basin and in the SE gulf where seas are in the
3 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, Nicole will move inland and weaken to a tropical
depression near 31.2N 84.2W Fri morning, inland to 34.9N 82.6W
Fri afternoon, and dissipate Sat morning. Strong winds and rough
seas are expected over the eastern Gulf through Fri morning.
Looking ahead, a cold front should move over the NW Gulf Fri
evening and stretch from SE Louisiana to NE Mexico by Sat morning,
and from Tampa Bay, FL to the western Bay of Campeche by Sun
morning. Strong to minimal gale force northerly winds are expected
in the wake of the front near the Tampico area by Sat afternoon
with seas building to 8 or 9 ft.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The presence of Tropical Storm Nicole over NW Florida continue to
disrupt the Atlantic subtropical ridge, which typically governs
trade wind flow across the Caribbean. As a result winds are light
to gentle and variable across the western half of the Caribbean
with 1-3 ft seas. Moderate trade wind flow is across the eastern
half of the basin, being supported by the passage of a tropical
wave. Seas to 3 ft dominate this region.

For the forecast, as Nicole moves farther inland over the SE of
United States, winds will veer to the NE and E over the NW
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on
Tropical Storm Nicole.

West of 72W, the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by the
circulation of Tropical Storm Nicole, described in detail in the
Special Features Section above.

A cold front extends from 31N31W to 28N48W where it becomes
stationary and continues to 30N72W. North of this boundary, winds
are fresh to strong from the E and SE with 8-14 ft seas,
higher closer to Nicole. South of the boundary, winds are gentle
to moderate from the E to SE with 4-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Nicole near 29.4N
83.2W 990 mb at 4 PM EST moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Nicole will move inland and weaken to a
tropical depression near 31.2N 84.2W Fri morning, inland to 34.9N
82.6W Fri afternoon, and dissipate Sat morning. Large seas of 12
ft or greater associated with Nicole and a frontal boundary that
extends roughly along 27N are forecast to gradually subside on
Fri, with seas below 12 ft by late Fri. Looking ahead, a cold
front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun, then
weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to the Florida
Straits by Mon night.

$$
Ramos
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