[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 12
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL172022
1034 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA**
**CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON THURSDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Baker, Ben Hill,
      Calhoun, Clay, Dougherty, Early, Irwin, Lee, Miller, Quitman,
      Randolph, Seminole, Terrell, Tift, Turner, and Worth

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Dixie, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, and
      Coastal Wakulla
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Coastal Franklin
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baker, Ben Hill,
      Berrien, Brooks, Calhoun, Clay, Colquitt, Cook, Decatur,
      Dougherty, Early, Gadsden, Grady, Inland Dixie, Inland
      Franklin, Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Inland Wakulla,
      Irwin, Lafayette, Lanier, Lee, Leon, Liberty, Lowndes, Madison,
      Miller, Mitchell, Quitman, Randolph, Seminole, Terrell, Thomas,
      Tift, Turner, and Worth

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 390 miles east-southeast of St Marks
    - 27.0N 78.9W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 285 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Nicole will move onshore the east coast of Florida late
tonight or early Thursday, weakening to a tropical storm by the time
it passes northwestward across the far northeast Gulf and the Florida
Big Bend region later Thursday and Thursday night. Nicole will turn
northward through southwest Georgia early Friday morning. Tropical
Storm Warnings have been expanded to include all of Southwest Georgia.
Storm Surge Warnings continue from the Ochlockonee river to the mouth
of the Suwannee river.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin along the Big Bend
coast around daybreak Thursday, spreading northward past I-10 and
through Southwest Georgia later on Thursday morning and during the
afternoon. Preparations for Nicole should be complete by daybreak on
Thursday.

The main concern with Nicole will be the windy conditions, especially
on Thursday and Thursday night. Additionally, heavy rainfall of 2 to
3 inches will be a concern, especially across the Florida Big Bend and
along the I-75 corridor of south Georgia. However, a lack of recent
rainfall will allow the ground to absorb some of the heavy rain.
Torrential rainfall rates will be the main contributor to localized
flash flooding.

The latest forecast track near or over Apalachee Bay will support
dangerous storm surge. Normally dry land near the shoreline could
experience 3 to 5 feet of inundation. Storm Surge Watches remain in
effect from Indian Pass to the mouth of the Ochlockonee River, and
Storm Surge Warnings similarly remain in effect from the mouth of the
Ochlockonee River to the mouth of the Suwannee River.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and
southwestern Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts near the shoreline of Apalachee Bay from the Ochlockonee River
to the mouth of the Suwannee River. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts along the shore of Franklin County.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the Florida Big Bend and Southwest Georgia. Potential
impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches
      overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts along
the I-75 corridor of South Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

WATCH/WARNING PHASE - For those not under evacuation orders, assess
the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If
you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do
not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation
orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city in which
you are staying and the name of the county in which it resides.
Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for
instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone
to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 5 AM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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