[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092237
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Nov 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 26.5N 77.9W at 09/2100
UTC or 50 nm E of Freeport Grand Bahama Island moving W at 11
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.


Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed
within 90 nm of the storm's center with outer rain bands
extending up to 300 nm north of the center. Nicole is an enormous
storm with tropical storm force winds extending 390 nm in the NW
quadrant and 420 nm in the NE quadrant. Seas 12 ft or greater
extend over 600 nm in the NE quadrant and 360 nm in the NW
quadrant. Peak seas are near 35 ft, mainly NW of the center.
Nicole will bring high-end tropical storm or low- end hurricane
conditions to the NW Bahamas this evening. By tonight, a small
area of hurricane force winds are expected to impact the Florida
coast, between Boca Raton and the Flagler/Volusia County Line,
embedded in a very large area of tropical storm impacts from
Hallandale Beach, FL to South Santee River, SC. A dangerous storm
surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida and
portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well
as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 61W, from 06N to
17N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 08N to 15N, between 59W and 65W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 06N27W to
11N42W, where the convergent flow is interrupted by a surface
trough. The ITCZ resumes west of the trough from 11N50W to 12N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 08N, between
21W and 29W and from 09N to 15N, between 36W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
Storm Nicole, approaching Florida's east coast.

Strong NE winds encompass the eastern Gulf E of 87W due to
Tropical Storm Nicole, and seas in this area are 8 to 10 ft. For
the remainder of the Gulf, gentle to moderate NW flow and seas of
4 to 6 ft dominate.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Nicole near 26.5N 77.9W 985 mb
at 4 PM EST moving W at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts
75 kt. Nicole will strengthen to a hurricane near 27.3N 80.1W Thu
morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.8N 82.8W Thu
afternoon while reaching the Gulf of Mexico briefly, move inland
again to 31.0N 84.0W Fri morning, weaken to a remnant low well
north of the area. Nicole will bring tropical storm force winds to
the far northeast Gulf tonight through Thu night, and strong
winds and rough seas elsewhere over the eastern Gulf. Winds and
seas will diminish through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front should
move over the northwest Gulf Fri night, stalling from west-
central Florida to the southwest Gulf by Sat night. Strong winds
and rough seas will follow the front over the far western Gulf Sat
and Sat night before diminishing on Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...


Please see Tropical Waves Section above for details on a tropical
wave moving through the Lesser Antilles that is inducing
convection over the eastern Caribbean.

Elsewhere, the typical pressure gradient has been disrupted by
Tropical Storm Nicole, passing well N of the area, leading to
light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will continue to lead
to gentle to moderate winds across the area through the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on
Tropical Storm Nicole, which is impacting much of the waters
west of 60W and N of 23N.

East of 70W, the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by Tropical
Storm Nicole, described in detail in the Special Features Section
above. A weak cold front is spilling S of 30N, with strong to near
gale force NE to E winds to the N of it. Seas in this area of
strong winds range from 10 to 16 ft. South of the boundary,
winds are mainly gentle with 6-8 ft seas. A surface ridge
extending from a 1024 mb high pressure E of the Azores dominates
the remainder of the basin. In the central Atlantic, moderate to
fresh SW winds are observed north of 28N and E of 50W, with
gentle winds further south. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to
fresh NE winds are observed along the coast of Western Sahara.
Seas are 6-8 ft throughout the central and eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Nicole near 26.5N
77.9W 985 mb at 4 PM EST moving W at 11 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Nicole will strengthen to a hurricane
near 27.3N 80.1W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm near
28.8N 82.8W Thu afternoon, move inland to 31.0N 84.0W Fri morning,
weaken to a remnant low well north of the area. Large seas from
Nicole will diminish over the NW waters by Sat morning. Looking
ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida
early Sun, then weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to
the Florida Straits by early Mon.

$$
KONARIK
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