[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 11
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL172022
415 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022

This product covers South Florida

**NICOLE CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA,
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch have been
      upgraded to a Hurricane Warning for Metro Palm Beach

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Metro Palm Beach
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Palm Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Warning, Storm Surge Watch, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Broward
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Inland Broward, Inland Palm Beach, and Metro Broward
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Glades and Hendry

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 130 miles east of West Palm Beach FL or about 140 miles
      east of Fort Lauderdale FL
    - 26.5N 77.9W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement West or 270 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Nicole is currently moving west over the northwest
Bahamas in the southwest Atlantic and is forecast to gradually turn
toward the northwest towards the east coast of Florida tonight as a
hurricane.

While the finer details of the track and intensity could fluctuate a
bit, the confidence in the potential impacts of this system continue
to increase. Keeping in mind the magnitude of impacts may vary a bit
with any changes to Nicole's forecast, the main hazards of concern
are:

* Coastal Flooding/Surge - Higher than usual tides due to the recent
full moon and antecedent moderate northeasterly flow will become
further enhanced as Nicole moves towards the east coast of Florida.
Tidal gauges are forecast to climb into moderate to major flood stage
through tonight. The concern is greatest around high tide. High tide
this evening is between 830-930 PM along the east coast. Peak
inundation values of concern along the immediate coast are forecast to
range from 3 to 5 feet across northern Palm Beach, 2 to 4 feet south
to Hallandale Beach, and 1 to 3 feet across Miami-Dade. Large
breaking/life threatening waves are expected along the east coast with
the worst conditions expected along Palm Beach.

* Rainfall - The majority of the rainfall associated with the system
is forecast to fall through Thursday morning. Waves of moderate to
heavy rain could cause localized flooding. The greatest risk for flash
flooding will be near the coast should bands of heavy rain fall when
tides are at their peak. Fairly widespread storm total rain amounts of
2-4" with localized amounts in excess of 6 inches are possible over
the area. The highest amounts are anticipated over Palm Beach county
and the Lake region.

* Wind - Based on the current forecast for Nicole, the reasonable
worst case scenario is for tropical storm force winds particularly
across the Palm Beach region and Broward county. Tropical storm force
winds have already been observed along coastal Palm Beach, with
occasional tropical storm gusts across Broward county and inland Palm
Beach county. Hurricane force winds are a reasonable worse case
scenario tonight mainly across portions of coastal and northeastern
Palm Beach county.

* Tornadoes - A low-end tornado threat is currently forecast tonight
into early Thursday as banding from the system moves ashore along the
Florida east coast. The greatest potential for tornadoes will be along
Palm Beach county and northward.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
the Palm Beach coast. Remain well sheltered from
life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts. If realized,
these impacts include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Potential impacts from the main wind event are also now unfolding
across the inland Palm Beach region and Broward counties. Remain well
sheltered from dangerous wind having possible limited to significant impacts.

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
the Palm Beach and Broward coasts. Remain well away from life-threatening
surge having additional significant impacts. If realized, these impacts
include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Potential impacts from the main surge event are also now unfolding
across Miami-Dade and Collier counties. Remain well away from locally
hazardous surge having possible limited impacts.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
the Palm Beach region and Broward county. Remain well guarded against dangerous
flood waters having possible significant impacts. If realized, these impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Ditches and canals may quickly become swollen with swift
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
the rest of South Florida. Remain well guarded against locally
hazardous flood waters having possible limited impacts.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across northern
portions of Palm Beach and Glades counties. Remain well braced against
a tornado event having possible limited impacts. If realized,
these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile
      homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and
      branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving
      vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear
to return.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch
or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic
rise in water levels.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 10 PM EST, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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