[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL172022
433 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2022

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

** TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT **


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Coastal Dixie, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor,
      Coastal Wakulla, Inland Dixie, Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor,
      Lafayette, and Madison
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Coastal Franklin,
      Gadsden, Inland Franklin, Inland Wakulla, Leon, and Liberty

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal
      Taylor, and Coastal Wakulla
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Gadsden, Inland
      Dixie, Inland Franklin, Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Inland
      Wakulla, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, and Madison

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 570 miles east-southeast of St Marks
    - 26.6N 75.7W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement West-southwest or 250 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Nicole is forecast to move northwestward across the far
northeast Gulf and the Florida Big Bend region on Thursday and
Thursday night, turning northward through southwest Georgia early
Friday morning. Tropical Storm Watches have been upgraded to Warnings,
and Tropical Storm Warnings have been expanded west through the
Florida Big Bend to the Apalachicola River. Tropical Storm Watches or
Warnings may be needed further north into parts of Southwest Georgia
later today.

Tropical storm conditions along the Big Bend coast are most likely to
begin after sunrise on Thursday, but could reasonably begin as soon as
Wednesday night. However, breezy or windy conditions are still
expected today well in advance of Nicole. Preparations for Nicole
should be complete by sunset this evening.

The main concerns with Nicole will be the windy conditions, especially
on Thursday and Thursday night when tropical storm force winds will
most likely arrive. Additionally, heavy rainfall will be a concern,
especially across the Florida Big Bend and along the I-75 corridor of
south Georgia. A lack of recent rainfall will allow the ground to
absorb some of the heavy rain. Torrential rainfall rates will be the
main contributor to localized flash flooding.

The latest forecast track across Apalachee Bay will support dangerous
storm surge. Normally dry land near the shoreline could experience
2 to 4 feet of inundation. Storm Surge Watches remain in effect from
Indian Pass to the mouth of the Suwannee River, and warnings may be
needed later this morning.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and
southwestern Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts from the mouth of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, or along
the shore of Apalachee Bay. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the coastal Big Bend.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across the Florida Big Bend and the I-75 corridor
of South Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches
      overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Florida Big Bend and south Georgia.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
along the I-75 corridor of south Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city in which
you are staying and the name of the county in which it resides.
Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for
instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on
a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong
winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 11 AM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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