[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Tue Nov 8 21:09:10 CST 2022

WTUS82 KJAX 090308
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Tropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL172022
1008 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**NICOLE VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE HEADED FOR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Flagler and Coastal St. Johns
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Glynn, Coastal
      Nassau, Eastern Clay, Eastern Putnam, Inland St. Johns, South
      Central Duval, and Trout River
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bradford, Central
      Marion, Eastern Alachua, Eastern Marion, Gilchrist, Inland
      Camden, Inland Flagler, Inland Glynn, Inland Nassau, Western
      Alachua, Western Clay, Western Duval, Western Marion, and
      Western Putnam
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Baker, Brantley,
      Hamilton, Northeastern Charlton, Northern Columbia, Pierce,
      Southern Columbia, Suwannee, Union, Wayne, and Western Charlton

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 460 miles east-southeast of Jacksonville FL or about 470
      miles east-southeast of Ocala FL
    - 27.1N 74.8W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement West-southwest or 250 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Nicole is expected to bring widespread impacts with life-threatening
storm surge flooding, tropical storm force winds, heavy rainfall,
rough surf, and rip currents. Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
portions of the area and a hurricane watch is in effect for coastal St
Johns and coastal Flagler counties. There is a localized flash flooding
risk Wednesday night into Friday, and a Flood Watch is in effect for
portions of northeast Florida. A tornado threat may develop Wednesday
night and Thursday as well to the north and east of the center.

Nicole is currently expected to reach Hurricane strength before
reaching the southeast Florida peninsula Wednesday night. The
continued track has Nicole pressing into the southern Florida peninsula
and reaching towards the Nature Coast by Thursday evening and then
turning its path towards the northeast and crossing northern Florida,
southeast Georgia and into the Carolinas Friday and Friday evening.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal northeast Florida, coastal southeast Georgia,
Intracoastal Waterways, and the St. Johns River Basin. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across portions of northeast Florida. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across southeast Georgia and the rest of northeast Florida.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 430 AM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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