[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 081753
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
100 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 73.3W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Savannah River Georgia
* Anclote River Florida to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida
* North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.
Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 73.3 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A west-southwest
motion is expected through early Wednesday.  A west-northwest
motion is forecast to begin on Wednesday night, followed by a turn
toward the northwest and north-northwest on Thursday and Thursday
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach
the northwestern Bahamas today and tonight, move near or over those
islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida within
the hurricane warning area Wednesday night. Nicole's center is then
expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern
Georgia Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day
or so, and Nicole is forecast to a hurricane on Wednesday when it
is near the northwestern Bahamas, and remain a hurricane when it
approaches the east coast of Florida.

Nicole is a large tropical cyclone.  Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas by
tonight.  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the east coast of Florida Wednesday night
with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early
Wednesday within the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by
Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to
Georgetown...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to the Suwannee River...2 to 4 ft
* Middle of Long Boat Key to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1
to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 7 inches

Southeast Georgia into portions of South Carolina: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula on
Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
north farther up the Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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